SOURCE: The St. Petersburg Times
DATE: Issue #1202 (68), Friday, September 8, 2006
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TITLE: Long Awaited Eastern Ring Road Opens
AUTHOR: By Evgenia Ivanova
PUBLISHER: Staff Writer
TEXT: The eastern half of the ring road around St. Petersburg, or KAD, an ambitious project aimed at solving many of the city's traffic and environmental problems was officially opened Thursday."Now all cargo transport will be eliminated from the city center entirely, which will significantly improve the transport and the ecology situation in the city," Governor Valentina Matviyenko said Thursday.
The construction of the road included building the new Bolshoi Obukhovsky suspension bridge, also known as Vantovy Bridge, a new St. Petersburg landmark and one of the 40 biggest suspension bridges of this kind in the world.
Opened for traffic on Friday, the bridge will have further lanes added and be complete in 2007, Interfax reported on Thursday, citing Matviyenko.
The eastern section of the road allows drivers to bypass the city on north-south routes and connects the Primorsky and Moscow trunk roads. Construction on the $2 billion project began in 2001.
The newly opened road has "international significance" Russia's transport minister Igor Levitin told the Interfax news agency on Thursday because as from Friday vehicles will be able to travel directly to and from Moscow and neighboring countries without passing through St. Petersburg's center.
According to the City Hall, the government paid for the road's interchanges and ramps, while other costs of the road were met by investors.
However some experts say that the low number of ramps on and off the road significantly hampers the development of industrial areas alongside it, where logistics centers, warehouses, trading and entertainment facilities and major residential areas are planned.
"Of course the opening is a very important event for the city. Now we will have fewer traffic jams, lesser gas pollution, and fewer through-traffic in the city," said Alexander Veretin, communications deputy director at KAD-L, a state-run developer of the area alongside the road. "But the road is also of fundamental importance to its investors, and problems with the ramps still have to be solved."
"Four ramps were excluded from the initial project to save money, but the Leningrad Oblast administration, including our organization, believe that not only that the four ramps should be returned to the project but there is also a need for an additional two to be built," Veretin added in the interview to the St. Petersburg Times on Thursday.
If this is were to happen, the road would boost development in the area, Veretin said.
KAD-L has already signed $1 billion worth of contracts to develop the areas alongside the new road, with a further $3 billion estimated to be signed within the next two years.
Maxim Kharitonov, marketing manager of Euro Motors, a Ford dealership in St. Petersburg, thinks that regardless existing problems with the ramps the area around the road will be developed quickly.
"I know for a fact that many car dealers plan to build their showrooms alongside KAD," Kharitonov told the St. Petersburg Times on Thursday. "The defiencies in the road's infrastructure is less of a problem than the problem of finding a place to open a new showroom in the city. There are not many suitable sites left in St. Petersburg."
The ring road is to be completed in 2008 when the western half is due to be finished. City Hall said this will cost a further 25 billion rubles on its website on Thursday.

TITLE: Dreaming of a Tidy, Terrorist-Proof Toilet
AUTHOR: By Valeria Korchagina
PUBLISHER: Staff Writer
TEXT: MOSCOW — Russia may have failed so far to negotiate entry into the World Trade Organization, but it's still a member of the WTO. That's WTO as in World Toilet Organization.Just beyond the Kremlin walls, at the Manezh exhibition center, the WTO opened its 6th annual World Toilet Summit on Wednesday.
The summit is dedicated to quality public facilities, waging a public-relations campaign against age-old taboos.
"Often, we are too embarrassed to talk about this subject," said Jack Sim, the founder of the Singapore-based WTO. The group, launched in 1999, has 47 members, including the Russian Toilet Association. "Our goal is to improve the level of social acceptance of the issue."
As the WTO is quick to note, everyone — everyone — uses toilets. Indeed, the average toilet-user visits the commode roughly 2,500 times per year, according to WTO figures.
"I hope after this summit everybody in Russia will enjoy a better visit to the toilet," Sim said.
The summit and an accompanying exhibition of industry-related items — including portable stalls and remote-controlled toilet seats — runs through Saturday. Sixty or so firms from Russia, Asia and Europe contributed to the exhibition.
Summit participants are also slated to hear reports on a variety of toilet issues, from infections spread through public toilets to the history of toilets in Russia to proper disinfection methods.
Sim, who used to sell construction materials for a living, said he became involved in toilet issues in the 1990s, after Singapore's prime minister called for better toilets, noting that "good toilet habits are a good reflection of a gracious society."
Since 2004, Sim has devoted himself exclusively to the WTO. He works for free but said the feeling that comes from doing good was better than any money he might earn.
"The issue of public toilets' quality has been left in the shadows for too long," Sim said. He added that the WTO's long-term goal was to reach people around the globe and eventually get to a point where all toilet-related problems were properly addressed.
Singapore has a reputation for being one of the cleanliest cities in Asia, if not the world. Its public toilets, not surprisingly, are among the best on the planet.
Russia, which only launched a serious public-facilities campaign after the 1991 Soviet collapse, still has a long way to go.
"You cannot call your city a world capital if the toilets are dirty," said Vladimir Moksunov, general director of the Russian Toilet Association.
Moscow still suffers from a huge shortage of public toilets, Moksunov said. City Hall officials say there are just over 250 stationary public toilets in Moscow; in many places, the problem is dealt with by installing portable, usually blue, booths, which hardly rise to the WTO's standards of comfort and hygiene.
What's more, the country's toilet culture, despite 15 years of capitalism, is still full of grim, Soviet-era mementos. Signs asking women not to stand on toilet seats can still be found in lavatories in otherwise Westernized offices.
And the old habit of stealing toilet paper rolls from public facilities, which dates to a time when it was hard to come by basic goods, continues to force many public toilet managers to store their toilet paper somewhere it can be seen instead of in booths.
Outside big cities, the most common public facility is the outhouse — a wooden hut with a hole in the ground.
For industry insiders, all this just means that Russia is a wide open market with huge growth potential.
"It's about to burst," said Paul Franks, general manager of the Switzerland-based Bradco firm, which specializes in public-hygiene products. Franks added that in the next three to five years, the country would see a big jump in the toilet sector.
Franks noted that Russia's growing economy was helping to fuel the demand for better, cleaner, more up-to-date facilities.
Some of the exhibitors Wednesday said they offered not only comfortable, easy-to-maintain products but — of critical importance nowadays — toilets that are safe from terrorists.
"This toilet, because it's made of concrete set on the metal frame, can withstand a suicide-bomb attack," explained Yury Otmakhov, a director of development for the Dvoinoi Dubl firm. As he spoke, Otmakhov displayed a massive contraption, already in use in some Moscow districts. "It will crack, but it will not explode and hurt anyone."

TITLE: Two Killed in Fire on Nuclear Sub
AUTHOR: By Mike Eckel
PUBLISHER: The Associated Press
TEXT: MOSCOW — A fire broke out aboard a Russian nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea, killing two crew members and injuring another, but the navy said there was no radiation threat, Russian news agencies reported Thursday.The blaze ignited Wednesday night in a mechanics room on the Daniil Moskovsky submarine of the Northern Fleet, which plies Russia's northern and Arctic waters, news agencies reported. The ship's nuclear reactor was shut down automatically, the reports said.
"There is no threat of nuclear contamination," Interfax quoted a Northern Fleet spokesman as saying.

TITLE: 30 Miners Trapped In Fire Below
AUTHOR: By Aleksandras Budrys
PUBLISHER: Reuters
TEXT: MOSCOW — Rescuers battled thick smoke and blistering temperatures on Thursday as they tried to reach more than 30 miners trapped underground by a fire at a gold mine in Siberia.Sixty-four miners were underground when welding work caused the fire in the central shaft of the Darasun mining complex in Russia's remote Chita region on the Chinese border, emergency officials said.
Some miners managed to crawl to safety through a tunnel. Rescuers were trying to bring the rest of the men to the surface through a horizontal tunnel linked to a second vertical shaft, 5 km from the blaze.
But one rescue team was forced to return to the surface because of high temperatures and thick smoke more than 10 hours after the fire started. Officials said rescuers were working through the night to reach the trapped miners.
"Thirty-three people have been rescued and 31 are still trapped in the mine," said a spokeswoman for the Emergencies Ministry in Chita, 5,000 km (3,000 miles) east of Moscow.
"We have no information on any dead or injured, because we have no contact with the trapped miners," she added.
There were conflicting reports about whether the fire, which broke out at 2:15 p.m. at a depth of 85 to 135 meters, was still raging.
Emergency officials said the fire was localized around but a local member of the regional administration, quoted by Interfax, denied this.
"Several rescue teams belonging to the Ministry of Emergency Situations as well as the company's own local emergency units are working to evacuate the miners remaining underground and to contain and extinguish the fire," the mine's owners, Highland Gold, said in a statement.
A team of 18 rescuers were forced to come to the surface because of high temperatures and thick smoke, the local official at the scene told Interfax.
Ivan Koulakov, deputy chairman of London-listed Highland Gold, was to fly to Darasun later on Thursday with a team of mining and safety experts to aid the rescue operation.
The Darasun mine, the smaller of Highland Gold's two main gold projects in Russia, produced 11,761 ounces of gold in the first half of this year, or around 13 percent of the company's total production.
Highland Gold has forecast total gold output this year of 180,000-185,000 ounces. The company is one-fifth owned by Canada's Barrick Gold, the world's largest gold miner.
Its shares fell by 4.5 percent in London after news of the fire.
Russia's gold mines have a generally better safety record than the more hazardous coal mining industry, which has been plagued by fatal accidents since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
Underinvestment, low pay and sloppy safety standards have been blamed for a series of mining disasters, the most recent of which was a blast at a Siberian coal mine in 2005 in which more than 20 died.

TITLE: Anti-Saakashvili Plot Uncovered
AUTHOR: By Margarita Antidze and Niko Mchedlishvili
PUBLISHER: Reuters
TEXT: TBILISI, Georgia — Georgia said Wednesday that it had uncovered a plot by opposition politicians sympathetic to Russia to overthrow the country's pro-Western leadership.A Georgian official said Tbilisi would be asking its neighbor Russia whether it funded the alleged plot. Georgia has fraught relations with Russia and accuses the Kremlin of trying to undermine it.
Georgian Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili announced the alleged coup plot after masked police carried out early-morning raids throughout the country. They rounded up 29 people linked to the opposition Justice Party.
"A special operation ... was carried out today at 5 a.m. across Georgia," Merabishvili told a news conference. "These people are charged with plotting a coup d'etat."
Georgia's leadership has said in the past that the Justice Party is financed by Moscow. It is led from exile by Igor Giorgadze, a former Georgian national security chief charged with trying to assassinate former President Eduard Shevardnadze.
Russia has denied it has interfered in Georgian politics. Moscow said the administration of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili sought out confrontation with Moscow to distract voters from its own failures.
But the arrests are likely to be a new irritant between Moscow and Tbilisi, which have waged a war of words since Saakashvili swept to power in 2003's "Rose Revolution."
Saakashvili wants to lead Georgia — for two centuries a Russian satellite — toward NATO and the European Union.
Giorgadze said Saakashvili was rounding up opposition activists to suppress opposition to his rule. The Justice Party is small and has no seats in the parliament, though it has staged noisy anti-Saakashvili protests in the capital.
Television showed policemen with automatic weapons escorting handcuffed suspects out of their homes and offices. About 450 police took part in the operation, Merabishvili said.
Police said the raids uncovered cash and weapons.
Those arrested included several well-known opposition politicians. The Justice Party favors restoring the close ties Georgia used to have with Russia.
This week, Moscow and Tbilisi traded barbs after a helicopter carrying the Georgian defense minister was shot at as it flew over South Ossetia.
Western governments have applauded Saakashvili for his economic reforms and for tackling endemic crime and corruption.
But voters are impatient for quick improvements in their living standards, which has led Saakashvili's popularity to slip.

TITLE: Nuclear Arsenal Gets Upgrade
PUBLISHER: The St. Petersburg Times
TEXT: MOSCOW — The military will complete security upgrades of its nuclear arsenal by late 2009 to further guard it against terrorists, a senior general said this week."In the course of the next two to three years, we plan to complete the modernization of the security systems of nuclear weapons storage facilities," General Vladimir Verkhovtsev told Krasnaya Zvezda newspaper.
Verkhovtsev heads the Defense Ministry's 12th Main Directorate, which is responsible for storage and maintenance of the country's nuclear arsenal.
Verkhovtsev said the security upgrade included all aspects of the storage facilities, including perimeter defenses. All such facilities will be equipped with intruder detection, surveillance and access-control systems, he said.
In addition to beefing up nuclear security, Verkhovtsev's directorate is also working to increase the professionalism of its personnel. In the interview with Krasnaya Zvezda, the Defense Ministry's official newspaper, the general said he had introduced tough new selection criteria for new staff members.
Verkhovtsev acknowledged that the threat of nuclear terrorism was on the rise, and said Russia's participation in global nonproliferation efforts reflected the government's concern about the issue.
Verkhovtsev was careful not to praise U.S. assistance in increasing the security of Russia's nuclear arsenal and fissile material.
The Defense Ministry has recently cooled on joint projects with the United States, as demonstrated by the cancellation this week of the annual Torgau military exercise.

TITLE: Child Murder Case Unsolved
PUBLISHER: The St. Petersburg Times
TEXT: MOSCOW — The parents of five boys whose remains were found in a Krasnoyarsk sewer pipe last year met Wednesday with the investigator overseeing the case, but most of them declared the meeting unsatisfactory and said they would go ahead with a planned hunger strike, Interfax reported."They reminded us again of the confidentiality of the investigation and, in essence, told us nothing," said Yevgeny Taumanov, the father of one of the boys.
The parents have been angry with investigators for taking too long, in their eyes, with the case.
In April 2005, Alexander Lavrenov, Maxim Taumanov, Safar Aliyev, Galash Mamedgasanov and Dmitry Makarov went missing. The bodies of the boys, aged 9 to 12, were found one month later. One of the bodies was burned beyond recognition. The bodies have yet to be returned to the boys' parents.
After meeting Wednesday with investigator Andrei Chernus, parents of three of the boys said they would continue demonstrating outside the disused pipe where the bodies were found; the demonstration began Tuesday. The parents will go on a hunger strike Thursday.
Krasnoyarsk Governor Alexander Kholonin said Wednesday that the parents deserved to be kept abreast of the investigation. "Authorities are always ready to help them in any way they can," he said. "The prosecutor's office is doing everything possible with the help of experts to get to the bottom of this."

TITLE: Azimuth Reveals Hotel Scheme
AUTHOR: By Yekaterina Dranitsyna
PUBLISHER: Staff Writer
TEXT: Azimuth Management Group has announced the official launch of its hotel chain and presented a new concept comprising three-star hotels oriented exclusively towards business travelers. In St. Petersburg the company has acquired the former Sovietskaya hotel, which will become the flagship of Azimuth Hotels in Russia."The aim of our hotel chain is to introduce new standards of service in the three-star segment and to provide comfortable living conditions for our guests," Yelena Lysenkova, sales and marketing director of Azimuth Hotels said Thursday at a press conference.
As the company targets business travelers, the brand concept includes spacious conference halls, clear classification of rooms divided into four types and unified style and management rules. The brand concept was designed in cooperation with the Mildberry international brand agency.
"When our guest arrives in a new city, he will choose our hotel, because he knows exactly what he will get — an identical set of services, identical room classes and the same level of service," said Sergei Lysenkov, director of Azimuth Management Group.
Lysenkova identified the target audience as being people between 30 and 55 years old, with 70 percent of them being men. A regular business traveler stays 2.3 days in a hotel on average, she said.
Taking into account the needs of business travelers, Azimuth offers simplified registration procedures, additional services, which are not usually available in three-star hotels, such as concierges and messengers, and an improved breakfast menu including 42 options.
"We are the largest hotel chain in Russia at the moment," Lysenkov said.
Azimuth Management Group operates eight hotels with over 3,000 rooms in Russia. All the hotels have been acquired by the group, with the exception of its hotel in Astrakhan, which is operated on a long-term lease.
Azimuth Management Group is a subsidiary of the Nerl investment company, which develops commercial real estate projects.
The company started buying hotels in 2004. The Sovietskaya was acquired last year.
In 2007, the company will invest 216 million rubles ($8 million) into developing the chain. Lysenkov indicated Novosibirsk, Rostov and Yekaterinburg as the most probable locations for new hotels.
The chain turnover is expected to exceed one billion rubles this year. In August, average occupancy at the hotels was 66 percent, Lysenkov said, and although the shareholders are "pleased with the financial performance," further improvements are expected.
"Within a year, we are planning to renovate 170 suites in this hotel. We will renovate the18th floor and create conference halls and a banqueting hall. We are also planning to install gas heating in the hotel and to gain significant economical return from it," said Alexander Tulupov, director of Azimuth Hotel St. Petersburg.
The company will also renovate a restaurant and install new equipment.
Room prices in the hotel will vary from between 1,300 rubles and 6,500 rubles.
Among close competitors Lysenkov listed Inturist, Rezidor SAS, Marriott and Intercontinental.
Igor Luchkov, head of the assessment and analysis department at the Becar real estate agency, suggested that buying the building in its present condition could cost about $1,500 per square meter.
"Total expenses on the project will depend on the current condition of the building. Even expenses for redecoration and minor repairs could be rather high," he said.
Luchkov estimated expenses on minor repairs at $300,000 to $500,000.
"If they undertake repairing, reconstruction and installing of new equipment, the expenses could rise to $800,000 and higher," he said.
Nevertheless, the project is financially viable, he said. Construction of a three-star hotel from scratch usually costs between $2,000 and $2,500 per square meter, Luchkov said.
Among the project advantages Luchkov indicated the good location of the hotel, close to the city center, metro station and Moskovsky Prospekt, the latter giving direct access to Pulkovo airport.
"It's not a prestige location on tourist routes, but for a C-class hotel it's rather convenient," he said.

TITLE: Juice Giant Plans to Purchase Troia-Ultra
AUTHOR: By Yekaterina Dranitsyna
PUBLISHER: Staff Writer
TEXT: The largest juice producer in Russia, Lebedyansky, will buy local juice producer Troia-Ultra, the company said Wednesday in a statement.Both companies are preparing documents for approval by the anti-monopoly committee.
"The acquisition of Troia-Ultra will be an important step in the development of our company, which will consolidate its position in the Northwest region," Lebedyansky chairman Yury Bortsov said.
"Modern production facilities in St. Petersburg will help us to optimize production and logistics processes. We also highly value the market potential of Troia-Ultra trademarks, which will advantageously expand our brand portfolio and customer base," Bortsov said.
Troia-Ultra is one of the five largest juice producers in Russia. Last year the company reported sales of over 83,000 tons of juice.
Troia-Ultra's brand portfolio consists of six trademarks for juice, nectars and cold tea drinks.
"The acquisition of our company by the leader of the Russian juice market has confirmed high efficiency of the Troia-Ultra business," Vladimir Matveyev, general director of Troia-Ultra, said. "We are sure that investment from Lebedyansky will give us new energy for development."
The production capacity of the Troia-Ultra plant is more than 180 million liters a year. The company also owns and rents warehouses totalling 12,000 square meters. Its dealer network covers more than 500 cities in Russia.
Lebedyansky so far operates two plants in the Lipetsk Oblast. According research by AC Nielsen, by January the company had 29.7 percent of the Russian juice market in terms of sales.
According to IFRS, Lebedyansky's revenue last year was $514.6 million, with a net profit of $75.6 million. In the first half of 2006 the company reported revenue at $345 million, and a net profit of $53.3 million.
Odile Lange-Broussy, senior analyst for consumer goods and retail at Aton investment group, said that the deal's price was likely to be equal to Troia-Ultra's sales volume.
"We believe that move will strengthen Lebedyansky's market share in the Northwest, a region traditionally dominated by Multon, which has 20 percent of the overall Russian juice market. Lebedyansky enjoys a national market share of around 30 percent, but closer to 14 percent in the Northwest," Lange-Broussy said.
According to daily business newspaper Vedomosti, Troia-Ultra had estimated sales at $30 million in 2005.
"Increasing its local market share and leveraging up its brand in the process are fully in line with Lebedyansky's strategy," Lange-Broussy said. "We estimate this acquisition will have a limited impact on the financials, however, as we forecast Lebedyansky's juice sales in the 2006 financial year to reach $590 million, excluding this latest deal."
"We see this as positive and expect to make slight adjustments to our model in response. We reiterate our 'buy' recommendation on Lebedyansky," Lange-Broussy added.
Other experts were also positive about the deal.
"Strategically the deal makes sense. It strengthens Lebedyansky's position in the St. Petersburg market," Maria Kolbina, analyst at UFG, said.
Last year Troia-Ultra had 4 percent of the Russian juice market while in St. Petersburg the company had 10 percent of the market, Kolbina said.
"Troia has strong trademarks and market positioning, so the acquisition will improve the distribution of Lebedyansky in the region by expanding its brand portfolio," she said.
Tatiana Bobrovskaya, analyst at Brokercreditservice investment company, indicated that through this acquisition Lebedyansky will increase its production volume in line with its strategy of entering the European market, which was announced earlier this year.
"Despite the fact that current sales of Troia-Ultra are relatively small and the company occupies 3.8 percent of the market, according to Business-Analitika agency, Lebedyansky has all the options to double production volume at the St. Petersburg plant," Bobrovskaya said.
Bobrovskaya estimated the deal at $40 million to $42 million.
She suggested that using stable access to raw materials and the distribution chain, continuing production of Troia-Ultra's traditional brands and launching its own brands, Lebedyansky can increase its share in the Northwest from 9 percent to 17 percent in 2007.
"It would be rational for Lebedyansky to retain some Troia brands, which have loyal local customers and are positioned in low-price segment — the most dynamic segment in juice market," Bobrovskaya said.
However some brands will be discontinued so as not to compete with Lebedyansky's brands, she added.

TITLE: SUALto Invest $1 Bln in South Africa
AUTHOR: By Tom Miles and Gordon Bell
PUBLISHER: Reuters
TEXT: CAPE TOWN, South Africa — President Vladimir Putin presided over more than $1 billion of new deals in Cape Town on Wednesday and predicted a wave of others in a powerful economic foray into South Africa."In Russia we have great respect for the economic achievements of South Africa," he told South African President Thabo Mbeki at a business forum in Cape Town that marked a new relationship between two of the world's biggest emerging market economies.
Deals signed at the forum included a $1 billion investment in a manganese plant by SUAL chief Victor Vekselberg and cooperation agreements between state-owned Vneshekonombank and South Africa's Industrial Development Corporation and Nedbank.
South Africa's De Beers, the world's largest diamond producer, signed an agreement with Alrosa to examine joint prospecting and exploration in Russia and other regions.
Together the two groups account for 75 percent of the global diamond market.
Natural Resources Minister Yury Trutnev said aluminum firm RusAl was considering building a smelter in South Africa, although RusAl denied it.
Trutnev, who is part of a business delegation in Cape Town with Putin, said Wednesday that RusAl was thinking about building a smelter in South Africa.
A RusAl spokeswoman denied any knowledge of such a plan.
Putin said Tuesday that a Russian firm was thinking of building the smelter, without elaborating.
Russia's second-largest aluminum firm, SUAL, which is in merger talks with RusAl, said it was also interested in taking part in the smelter project.
Outlining his shopping list of possible future projects, Putin also listed tourism and investment in a plant to assemble Russian minivans.
"We are also interested in your experience of turning gas into synthesized fuel," he said, referring to a project by South Africa's Sasol.
"If we follow this trajectory we will be talking about billions of dollars," Putin said.
De Beers Chairman Nicky Oppenheimer said the diamond deal was "a commitment to look to see whether there are things we can do together in the prospecting field. We are keen to prospect in Russia."
Putin's visit, the first to sub-Saharan Africa by a Russian head of state, is clearly dominated by a drive to boost cooperation between the two mineral-producing countries. He is accompanied by 100 business leaders.
The delegation included Alexander Abramov, director of steelmaker Evraz, and the head of state-owned oil firm Zarubzhneft, Nikolai Tokarev, as well as Trutnev.
Putin has made clear that his two-day visit, which was due to end later Wednesday as Putin headed to Morocco, is motivated more by hard-headed economic considerations than nostalgia.
"We consider the relationship to be a strategic partnership," Mbeki said.

TITLE: Talks On Shtokman Resume
PUBLISHER: Reuters
TEXT: MOSCOW — Western oil majors seeking to enter into partnerships with Gazprom in the $20 billion-plus Shtokman gas project said on Wednesday that negotiations with the gas monopoly had resumed after a break of several months.The pause, which cast doubts on Gazprom's ability to launch one of the world's biggest energy projects by early next decade, came amid increasingly chilly relations between Russia and the United States.
Washington has so far blocked Moscow's accession to the World Trade Organization, while U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney called on Russia to stop using its energy might as a tool of blackmail against its neighbors.
Analysts have said that the Kremlin may give instructions to Gazprom not to choose U.S. majors ConocoPhillips and Chevron for Shtokman, and instead pick Norway's Statoil, Norsk Hydro or France's Total.
Chevron on Wednesday confirmed it had been invited to continue discussions on the project.
Total also said its president had received a letter asking the company to prepare to resume talks on developing Shtokman. Statoil and Norsk Hydro later confirmed they had got similar invitations.

TITLE: State Control Loses Its Luster
AUTHOR: By William Mauldin
PUBLISHER: Staff Writer
TEXT: MOSCOW — If the Kremlin ever has to open up its coffers and bail out a flailing state-controlled company, investors may have to face a sobering truth: Some state-controlled companies are more equal than others.For years, state ownership has been seen as a benefit to Russian companies' credit ratings and stability. Kremlin-connected firms get preferential treatment from regulatory authorities, and they're often able to outspend their competitors by drawing on jumbo foreign loans and bond issues, implicitly backed by the wealth of their government sponsors.
But as the state's debt shrinks and corporate debt swells, investors are increasingly questioning the commonly held view that state firms can rely on state support in times of troubles.
"Many foreign investors think 'state-owned' means 'state-supported," said Pavel Mamai, fixed income analyst at Renaissance Capital. "Many are satisfied with that simple answer, which is wrong."
When Standard & Poor's upgraded Russia's sovereign credit rating on Monday, the ratings agency said it would not upgrade Gazprom, Rosneft, Transneft or Russian Railways, telling investors that the government wouldn't necessarily help them pay their bills.
In a RenCap report published Tuesday, Mamai warned bondholders that state ownership did not guarantee state financial support and that the government would need an additional incentive to rescue a company from default.
The best incentives would be if the company performs important functions for the state or Russian citizens, if its financial well being is important to Russia's political base or its foreign affairs, or if the company is lucky enough to have close connections to powerful Kremlin officials.
According to Mamai's analysis, Gazprom and Vneshtorgbank can probably count on state support for some time to come, while Sberbank and Rosneft could someday face financial problems alone, depending on political winds and other factors. That's because Gazprom, in addition to furnishing a huge chunk of government revenue, is an important tool of Russia's foreign policy.
VTB, meanwhile, is almost completely owned by the state, plays a key international financial role, and benefited from state support during the 1998 crisis.
In an e-mailed response Wednesday, the Finance Ministry said the state bore "no legal responsibility for any obligations and debts" of state-controlled companies.
Emergency state aid, if it was to be granted, would likely take the form of loans from state-controlled banks, since federal law makes it almost impossible to bail out private industry with budget funds, Mamai said. In the banking sector, the Central Bank could step in and provide temporarily relief.
Through the banks it controls, the state could provide about $10 billion in emergency financing for a month or two and between $2.5 billion and $3 billion for longer periods.
In the case of a systemic collapse such as in 1998, the state would likely worry about its own finances, paying its own debt rather than worrying about state-controlled companies or private enterprise.
Even if a company such as an electricity generator provides an important function to the state, that doesn't necessarily mean the government would protect the utility company's finances or come to the rescue of its bondholders. By law, Russian companies can continue to operate under default or bankruptcy, so it's possible the utility's creditors could be hung out to dry as long as Russian citizens weren't left in the dark.
"If a company defaults, it doesn't always mean liquidation or bankruptcy because of the way the law is structured," said Yelena Anankina, an oil and gas analyst with Standard & Poor's.
Anankina said even though the state had shown an active interest in the energy sector, that did not mean the ministers with the money bags would help energy companies pay their debts.

TITLE: IN BRIEF
TEXT: $50Bln Investment
nMOSCOW (Bloomberg) —Japanese companies may invest $50 billion in Russia, RIA-Novosti reported, citing Deputy Economic Development and Trade Minister Kirill Androsov.
Potential Japanese investment in Russia "is close to $50 billion, according to our modest estimates," Androsov said at the first annual Russian-Japanese Investment Forum, held in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, the news service reported.Bond IssuenMOSCOW (Bloomberg) — Trust Investment Bank, a former unit of Yukos, plans to sell its first dollar-denominated bonds, two years after the bank bought out owners including jailed former billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
Trust hired UBS to organize the bond sale, Trust said in an e-mailed note to investors. Presentations to investors will begin in Asia on Sept. 18, the bank said in the note, without giving the size of the sale.Shell RulingnMOSCOW (Bloomberg) — The government will probably rule on Royal Dutch Shell's cost overruns at the world's biggest liquefied natural gas project by the end of the year, Interfax reported, citing Deputy Economic Development and Trade Minister Kirill Androsov.
Under a production-sharing agreement Shell signed with Russia for the Sakhalin-2 project in the 1990s, the government must approve any cost overruns in what is called a "technical and economic assessment" of the project, Androsov said in St. Petersburg on Wednesday, the news service said.Gas to UkrainenMOSCOW (Bloomberg) — Gazprom may raise the price it charges Ukraine in the coming months, less than a year after a pricing dispute between the two sides led to a disruption in deliveries.
"Our point of view is that it's an open question that's up for negotiation," Gazprom spokesman Sergei Kupriyanov said by telephone Wednesday.

TITLE: Turkmen Gas Rises by 50%
AUTHOR: By Valeria Korchagina
PUBLISHER: Staff Writer
TEXT: MOSCOW — Gazprom on Tuesday said it had struck a three-year deal with Turkmenistan to buy its gas for $100 per 1,000 cubic meters — a 55 percent hike on the current price of $65. The cost will most likely be passed on to Ukraine, the final customer for Turkmen gas, when the price increase takes effect in January.Under the deal, reached by Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller and Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov during talks in the Turkmen capital, Ashgabat, on Tuesday, the country's gas sales to Russia will drop to 50 billion cubic meters per year. Under a 2003 agreement, Turkmenistan was to sell Russia 80 bcm per year until 2009.
Tuesday's talks were the latest in a series between the two men in Ashgabat since Niyazov in June threatened to cut off supplies unless Russia agreed to pay the $100 price.
Niyazov also agreed Tuesday to send an extra 12 bcm of gas this year to help Ukraine prepare for the winter and secure Russian gas supplies to Europe.
In January, Russia cut off supplies to Ukraine after demanding a fourfold gas price hike. The dispute was resolved when Ukraine agreed to increase the price it paid from $50 to $95 per 1,000 cubic meters.

TITLE: Two Years On, Some Strange Beslan Stories
AUTHOR: By Yulia Latynina
TEXT: As the second anniversary of the Beslan tragedy approached, one thing was clear — unlike the Dubrovka theater disaster, Beslan proved impossible to cover up.I'm not talking about the evidence heard in the trial of the sole surviving terrorist, Nurpashi Kulayev, or even the report drafted by State Duma deputy — and explosives expert — Yury Savelyev, which concluded that the storming of the school began with a fire ignited by flamethrowers and grenade-launchers on the gym roof of School No. 1.
No, the point is that Dubrovka took place in Moscow, where every person is an isolated atom and only a few atoms caught up in Dubrovka are running around asking questions, unable to establish anything. To this day, official figures say 129 people died, although lawyer Karina Moskalenko came up with a figure of 170 dead just by adding up the number of corpses in the hospitals — and even this is probably short of the real number.
Beslan took place in the Caucasus, where people are not atoms but part of a whole. You will not find a family in Ossetia without relatives or friends who suffered at Beslan. Everyone tells each other stories. I'd like to tell some of them here.
• On the night of Sept. 3, following the battle, the school is surrounded by three cordons of soldiers, who tell Beslan residents they cannot approach the building because it is mined. But the women see what is left after the attack being removed from the building in trucks.
Crime scenes are always carefully sealed off. How can a horrendous crime like Beslan be investigated if evidence is removed by the truckload? In whose interest, apart from criminals, is the destruction of evidence?
• Inga Basayeva-Chedzhemova was taken hostage. On her way to school with her child, she was overtaken by a car full of bearded men and a military truck. At first she was afraid, but calmed down when she saw a police officer in the front seat of the car. This was Sultan Gurazhev, who according to the official investigation was also taken hostage. But the report said that Gurazhev was in the back seat. Basayeva-Chedzhemova was asked to change her evidence, but refused. In the end, Deputy Prosecutor Kolesnikov, she said, asked her: "You have a very famous surname — Basayev. Are you not afraid yourself?"
• As part of the investigation a simulation was conducted. An investigator drove a military truck laden with the weight of 32 terrorists, along the route the hostages, who were not locals, were supposed to have taken. He got lost and drove around from one ravine to another for 10 hours. The idea was to see if a heavily laden truck could be driven along this route but ended up demonstrating that it is impossible for anyone who does not know the route like the back of their hand to drive it.
• Hostage accounts spoke of a man named Ali, who they said was a deputy colonel, among the militants. Just after Beslan, prosecutors said that one person involved in the siege was the notorious militant Magas, a.k.a. Magomed Yevloyev, a.k.a. Ali Taziyev. Taziyev-Magas' body was identified at the time. But a year later, the Interior Ministry of Ingushetia accused Ali Taziyev — apparently resuscitated — of the murder of regional Deputy Interior Minister Dzhibrail Kostoyev. Investigators refused repeated requests from hostages to see a photograph of Taziyev. Testimony that Taziyev was the deputy colonel then disappeared from the documents in the court case against Kulayev.
The court records themselves are a problem. For example, one former hostage asks: "Who was shooting at the cafeteria?" Kulayev answers: "A tank shot at the cafeteria." And this is entered in the transcript from the trial as: "Tanks did not shoot at the cafeteria."
But transcripts are transcripts, and the Caucasus is the Caucasus. And you can't hide anything in the Caucasus.

Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio.

TITLE: After Beslan, the Media Are in Shackles
AUTHOR: By Masha Lipman
TEXT: Two years ago the new school term began in horror for the town of Beslan in North Ossetia. Terrorists seized School No. 1, and in the tragic events that followed, 332 civilians were killed, including 186 children. Today, the organized relatives of Beslan victims claim the government has done nothing to establish the real picture of the tragedy."It is obvious that siloviki [Interior Ministry and other security officials] are to blame for people's deaths," a group leader said. And yet, in the absence of active public, let alone political, support, they are powerless to compel the government to explain why so many had to die.
If there is one lesson the Kremlin has learned — or had confirmed for itself — since Beslan, it is that by maintaining tight control over political life and major media coverage it can efficiently minimize the political fallout from just about any event, even a tragedy of the magnitude of Beslan. By way of contrast, consider that in the United States alleged mismanagement of the Hurricane Katrina disaster continues to be a hot public and political issue that receives significant attention in the media a year later. In Russia, little is heard about Beslan.
In fact, the Kremlin has used the tragedy as a pretext to empower the security agencies further and to expand control over political life and the media. Almost immediately after the security operation ended at the school, President Vladimir Putin moved to cancel direct popular elections of governors. In the two years since Beslan, election rules have been repeatedly amended and fine-tuned so that nothing is left to chance and the result of the voting is sure to suit government interests.
The Kremlin has undertaken to mold the configuration of political parties in such a way as to ensure that ambitious actors with autonomous agendas will be safely marginalized. The political scene is filled with yes men. At the same time, the Kremlin has consolidated control over civic organizations, focusing especially on foreign-funded nongovernmental organizations, since foreign funding is just about the only factor that might enable public activism independent of the government.
The campaign to control major media began long before Beslan, of course, and it allowed the government to rigidly restrict the coverage of Beslan. While previous tragedies, such as the sinking of the nuclear submarine Kursk in 2000 and, to a lesser extent, the Moscow theater siege in 2002, had been investigated by major broadcast media, the monstrous terrorist attack in Beslan was not. The Kremlin radically limited coverage on federal television, which is the only media segment that reaches almost 100 percent of the public. Only the minor media that sought to find out what the government was trying to hide. Some of the print and online media (but not television!) reported the highly important evidence that surfaced at the trial of the only captured Beslan terrorist. They also published a number of interviews with survivors and witnesses, as well as with some outspoken officials, and reported on the investigations that were conducted by local and independent legislators. But all these sources of information are marginal — which makes them politically irrelevant.
Two years later the most burning questions about Beslan remain unanswered. How many terrorists were there? The official number is 32 — 31 of them killed and one tried and sentenced to life in prison, but other versions claim that there were many more. And what triggered the explosions in the school and the ensuing fire that caused most of the deaths? There is solid evidence that it was grenade launchers and other heavy weapons that were fired at the school by the security forces while hostages were still in the building. Officials do not admit this.
One of the most outrageous aspects of the investigation is that we remain uninformed about the chain of command of the security operation. Who among the top-ranking federal and local security officials were making the life-or-death decisions?
There is no answer to the question of who gave orders to understate the number of hostages. It was initially reported there were 354, about one-third of the actual number.
According to the survivors, when the false number was broadcast on television, the terrorists flew into a rage, and the treatment of the captives grew even more inhumane.
In a public opinion poll released last week, only 5 percent of those surveyed said they believed that the government was telling the whole truth about events related to the capture and release of the hostages, while 28 percent believed that they were hiding the truth and 50 percent said that only part of the truth was being told. But this has produced no demand that the truth be told.
The only people who have never stopped protesting are the victims' relatives in Beslan. Though the Kremlin has tried in various ways to neutralize them, they will not drop their cause. Indeed, their despair makes them immune to attempts to appease or discredit them.
So the Kremlin for the most part chooses to ignore them. Last year, on the first anniversary of the terrorist attack, their passionate advocacy compelled Putin to meet with the mothers. But this year the Kremlin showed no sign of concern about them.
Should future tragedies occur, the Kremlin seems fully equipped to isolate the victims and avoid the political consequences.

Masha Lipman is editor of the Carnegie Moscow Center's Pro et Contra journal. This comment was published in The Washington Post.

TITLE: Banal biennale
AUTHOR: By Andrei Vorobei
PUBLISHER: Special to The St. Petersburg Times
TEXT: St. Petersburg is in the middle of a month-long contemporary art event that fails to live up to its billing.The second week of the First St. Petersburg Biennale for Contemporary Art is in progress. The bombastic and pretentious title of the event eliminates the number of similar "biennales" that have already taken place in the city during the last decade.But, when there is a dramatic lack of a formal concept behind the event, the organizer's amnesia in this case is the merest trifle.
Its blend of gigantism (it lists around 30 exhibitions, screenings and performances), dilettantism and inapropriate enthusiasm on an almost zero budget, results in an accidental and tasteless selection of projects that leaves viewers perplexed.
The desire to follow the fashion for biennales at any price inflates the term and its cultural function to every two years demonstrate certain regularities and features of contemporary art, its forces, names, trends, issues and conflicts; it is both a routine and creative activity.
There are no exclusive exhibitions that have been specifically designed for the biennale. Almost all of its more or less remarkable shows, apparently, would have happened anyway either under the biennale's banner or just as a part of the opening of the new exhibition season.
For example, "9000 km," which closed this week at the European University, the biennale's headlining show and one of the few that is conceptually developed, is a transitory project.
Prepared by the National Center for Contemporary Art, this traveling exhibition appeared in St. Petersburg on its way to becoming the final show of the second International Moscow Biennale for Contemporary Art at the beginning of 2007. And according to the chief curator, Yevgeny Umansky, "9000 km," featured the only video art program in the huge multimedia event.
Nine thousand kilometers is the distance between the most eastern and western points of Russia, Vladivostok and Kaliningrad. The show "9000 km" gathers art from different localities around the country as well as from the Russian diaspora abroad. Although there are no striking works — only tolerable mainstream ones — it nevertheless gives some fresh, first-hand impressions of Russia's dispersed culture: Muscovites reflect on terrorism, Petersburgers consider "how to survive" in its maniacally preserved architectural environment, artists from the Far East deal with Chinese migration, while Ural region artists approach the difference between the geographical and cultural border of Europe and Asia; work from the unique political island of Kaliningrad region mediates upon Moscow's disregard for the former German land, and so on.
The Novosibirsk artist Dmitry Bulnigin's amusing piece "Vodka and Cigarette" which is composed of small video documentaries of Russian people of varying ethnicities and classes talking while drunk. This could be taken as a common denominator of much of this country's regional peculiarities.
It is noteworthy that contemporary art on the University premises revives a historically art-friendly venue which was much deformed in the Soviet era.
Here, in the middle of the 19th century Count Kushelev-Bezborodko's mansion hosted a superior Western art collection, known as the Kushelevskaya gallery; most of its highlights later migrated to the Hermitage. Now, the marble neo-renaissance faΝade hides an amusing interior intrigue: while its larger, sunny section has been occupied by post-graduate scholars' auditoriums since the '90s, the darker remainder is still hostage to numerous neglected testing areas and laboratories — the legacy of the Soviet experimental Institute of the Protection of Labor. The "9000 km" show has inventively used much of these brutal and picturesque spots.
Meanwhile, Andrei Rudiyev's exhibition, "Collection of Materials," at the Album gallery is another worthwhile show. The author of last year's much-talked-about installation "Antarctic Mission," which featured dozens of penguins on top of the Museum of the Arctic and Antarctic, this time displays his paintings. There are also interesting international video art screenings at Platforma club.The First Biennale for Contemporary Art runs through Sept. 22. See Galleries listings and www.russkialbum.ru

TITLE: Chernov's choice
TEXT: MTV EXIT, the international, series of dance events set up by MTV to increase global awareness about human trafficking and sex slavery comes to St. Petersburg this week. ("EXIT" is, actually, an abbreviation meaning "End Exploitation and Trafficking.")Due to take place at Manezh Kadetskogo Korpusa on Friday, the event will feature British dance acts Bent and Audio Bullies, France's Missill and a pair of Russian pop acts.
Dutch Punch, the annual music and film event that this year focusses on Rotterdam, continues this week with the Rotterdam Ska-Jazz Foundation which performs at Platforma on Saturday.
"A nice aspect of the Dutch Punch festival is its diversity of bands from Rotterdam," wrote the band's drummer Dimitrov Jeltsema in an email last week.
"This is because, in my opinion, the Rotterdam music scene is mainly devoted to rock and pop music (this actually holds for The Netherlands in general), so you get a nice cocktail of different kinds of music. A negative aspect about living as a musician in Rotterdam is that there are not so many (alternative) places where you can play your music live. That's why we like to travel so much, haha."
Rotterdam DJ FFF will perform at Manhattan later into the night also on Friday, while Dutch Punch's film program will be screened at GEZ-21 at 8 p.m. on Sunday.
A new bar in the popular indie-disco Datscha-style opened last week. Called Tsypa, it is located close to Moskovsky Vokzal on 4 Kolomenskaya Ulitsa and can be reached from either Ploshchad Vosstaniya or Vladimirskaya metro stations. The same DJs that perform at Fidel and Datscha also spin records in the new bar, which is open daily from 8 p.m. to 8 a.m. However, Tsypa is a little cheaper and has much stricter face control than Datscha.
"We also do not tolerate any excesses, so we have a more adult crowd," Alexander Babitsky, co-owner of Tsypa who once worked at Radio Studio, said this week. Call 764-3678 for more details.
The dance-music bar Mix, in operation for a couple of months, also had an "official" opening last week. The bar's most-recently added treat is screenings of either cult or controversial Western films, such as Paul Provenza's 2005 "The Aristocrats," whose tagline was "No Nudity, No Violence, Unspeakable Obscenity." The film will be shown at 8 p.m. on Wednesday.
This week will see the opening of Club Odin (Club One), which is actually Club Nol redesigned and relaunched.
"It's all kinds of indie music that I like and want my friends to listen to," said the club's promoter DJ Boomer, adding that Club Odin will host live concerts every Saturday. This Saturday, which is the club's official opening night, electronic acts Gender I.D. and Yo-Go Yo-Go will perform. For the times and location information, see Club Pick, page viii.— By Sergey Chernov

TITLE: Remembering Dovlatov
AUTHOR: By Victor Sonkin
PUBLISHER: Special to The St. Petersburg Times
TEXT: Like many children of the so-called "third wave" of Russian emigration who washed up on U.S. shores during the 1970s and '80s, Katherine Dovlatov did not want to be Russian."We refused to speak the language among ourselves, and some refused to speak Russian even to their parents," she recalled in an e-mail. "We really wanted to be American."
But Dovlatov's family was different from other immigrant families in New York at the time. Her father was Sergei Dovlatov, a satirical writer who would go on to become one of the best-loved Russian authors of recent decades. In the years after his death in 1990, Katherine — who goes by the name Katya — came to terms with her Russian identity, relearning the language, studying Russian literature and, most recently, establishing a Moscow-based foundation to honor her father's memory.
Last Sunday, on what would have been Sergei Dovlatov's 65th birthday, her foundation organized its first major event: a celebration at Moscow's Meyerhold Center with a host of celebrities, as well as the writer's friends and colleagues. "We did not want this evening to be a tribute evening in the traditional sense," Katya said. "We wanted it to be a celebration of Sergei Dovlatov's life."
Sergei Dovlatov studied at Leningrad State University, served in the Soviet army as a prison camp guard and worked as a journalist for newspapers in Leningrad and Tallinn. He began writing fiction in the early 1970s, but his numerous attempts to publish failed, with his first collection of short stories suppressed by the KGB. After his works appeared in emigre and samizdat journals, he had further difficulties with the authorities and, ultimately, emigrated to the United States in 1979.
In New York, Dovlatov launched the Russian-language newspaper Novy Amerikanets (The New American), which became a hit in emigre circles, and hosted a program on Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe. He also began to publish his novellas and short stories. Among his finest works are "The Zone," about his experiences as a camp guard, and "The Compromise," a collection of his Soviet newspaper articles accompanied by the uncensored "real stories" behind them. By the mid-'80s, Dovlatov was famous, and not just among emigres: his stories were being translated and published in prestigious magazines such as The New Yorker.
Dovlatov died of heart failure in 1990. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, his books appeared in Russia and became instant bestsellers. He remains one of the most widely quoted authors in Russia.
Last year, Katya Dovlatov set up an NGO in her father's honor. Called the Dovlatov Foundation, it has a twofold goal: to promote new Russian writers and to preserve the memory of Sergei Dovlatov's life and works. Katya's plans include an annual literary prize for the best unpublished work, an annual literature conference, and various one-off projects, such as a Dovlatov documentary. She has been busy fundraising to achieve her goals.
"We have raised over $200,000 so far, but we need at least twice that much to run the prize and conference," she said. "So, if anyone out there wants to be a contributor, feel free to get in touch with us."

To contact the Dovlatov Foundation, write to k.dovlatov@@dovlatov.com

TITLE: Going forward
AUTHOR: By Galina Stolyarova
PUBLISHER: Staff Writer
TEXT: With three Herculean construction projects in coming months affecting its normal program, the Mariinsky Theater begins the 2006/07 season a month earlier than usual.St. Petersburg's premier opera and ballet theater raises its famous blue curtain on Monday, with artistic director Valery Gergiev conducting Yury Alexandrov's new production of Tchaikovsky's "Mazeppa," showcasing some of the company's finest vocal talent: Nikolai Putilin, Viktor Chernomortsev, Larisa Dyadkova, Yevgeny Akimov and Yekaterina Solovyova.
The production had its world premiere at New York's Metropolitan Opera in March and was welcomed by the critics.
"Valery Gergiev led a many-colored, energetic reading of this unjustly neglected Tchaikovsky score," reads a review in Greenwich Time. "In spite of a final curtain near midnight, the evening seemed to fly."
The opera tells the story of Mazeppa, a nobleman who is refused the hand of Maria by her father Kochubei, leading to treachery, greed, death and madness on all sides. The tale was originally depicted in Alexander Pushkin's 1829 poem "Poltava" and is set against Russia's 18th century war with Sweden.
Director Alexandrov interpreted the plot as a story of the degrading personality of Mazeppa.
"For me, the human aspect was key to the story," Alexandrov said this week. "A corrupt personality driven by greed and ambition, who values money first and foremost, can exist in any culture, and has no nationality. In this sense, Mazeppa and Kochubei mirror each other's characters."
Western opera audiences have barely heard of "Mazeppa." Unlike Tchaikovsky's other masterpiece, "Eugene Onegin," which is found in remarkable abundance on international stages, "Mazeppa" has been an obscure jewel waiting to be discovered.
Gergiev has declared that it is part of the Mariinsky's policy to serve as Russia's cultural ambassadors, unveiling the lesser known Russian musical masterpieces to the world.
His efforts are reaping encouraging results.
The U.S. soprano Renee Fleming told The St. Petersburg Times in an interview this summer that Gergiev and the Mariinsky Theater are spearheading a revival of Russian opera in the West.
"There used to be just 'Eugene Onegin' but Valery Gergiev and the Kirov [the former name of the Mariinsky] have done enormous work changing that," Fleming said. "They have brought the finest performances of Russian operas to the entire world, and they do it so well. The situation is changing very quickly."
The reviews "Mazeppa" recieved in the world's press appear to prove the diva right.
"Valery Gergiev reinforces Tchaikovsky's subtlety as well as his grandeur," wrote The Financial Times. "Olga Guryakova [as Maria] exhudes pathos and shrill fortes. The baritone Nikolai Putilin [as Mazeppa] brings keen authority to the mood-swings of the Hetman protagonist. Authentic ensemble values are respected by all. That includes the virtuosic chorus."
"There is plenty of smashbuckling music, starting with the orchestral prelude, all galloping rhythms, elusive melodic turns, rattling instrumental effects and somber harmonic shifts," said The New York Times. "Russian opera buffs who know 'Mazeppa' only from Mr. Gergiev's Philips recording with the Kirov, to say nothing of those who do not know the music at all, have a chance to hear it performed magnificently."
As well as "Mazeppa", the new opera season includes Vladimir Galuzin and Putilin appearing in Leoncavallo's "I Pagliacci" on Oct. 8.
The ballet season begins on Wednesday with "Swan Lake" starring Viktoria Teryoshkina and Andrian Fadeyev.
An Evening of Fokine ballets, with Diana Vishnyova and Igor Zelensky, on Friday, Sept. 15, and a set of three one-act ballets ("The Leningrad Symphony," "The Bedbug" and "The Young Lady and The Hooligan") with music by Dmitry Shostakovich, featuring Ulyana Lopatkina and Igor Kolb on Sept. 25, are two further ballet highlights.
The first new ballet production of the season is expected to be unvieled in November.
The Internationally acclaimed emigre artist Mikhail Shemyakin joins forces with Bulgarian-born choreographer Donvena Pandurski in a project entitled "Megalopolis," featuring a triple bill of one-act ballets. The list includes Stravinsky's "The Rite of Spring," Prokofiev's "Metaphysics" and Rachmaninov's "The Meek One."
This will be the second time Pandurski and Shemyakin have produced a new ballet for the Mariinsky.
Their ballet, "The Magic Nut," premiered in May 2005 to tepid reviews in the local media. The production, mostly memorable for Shemyakin's sumptuous, brightly-colored designs, rather than for cutting-edge bold new choreography, showcased a perplexing mixture of courtly kitsch and the cartoonish monstrosity.
Shemyakin has also created some designs for the interior of the Mariinsky's new concert hall on Pisareva Ulitsa, set to open later in the season.
No information has yet been released about progress on the Mariinsky's reconstruction and other plans.
In the coming season, the company is due to start massive renovation of its historical premises, to inaugurate a new concert hall and to launch the construction of a new theater, Mariinsky II, designed by French architect Dominique Perrault.
The Mariinsky's tightly packed touring schedule in coming months includes full performances of Wagner's Ring Cycle in Orange County, California, in October (with Placido Domingo scheduled to sing Siegmund in "Die Walkure") and in Wales' Millenium Center in November/December.

TITLE: The inner revolution
AUTHOR: By Richard Lourie
PUBLISHER: Special to The St. Petersburg Times
TEXT: Jochen Hellbeck's study of diaries from the Stalin era takes us back to a time of hope, when the transformation of man seemed imminent.The Soviet experiment is now so entirely a part of the past that it seems slightly incredible that it was only 25 years ago that Leonid Brezhnev was in power and it was Russian troops who were dying in Afghanistan. In a sense there were two Soviet Unions, one extending from the Revolution to Josef Stalin's death in 1953 and the other from 1953 until the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. The two were roughly the same in duration, but it is of course the world of 1953-1991 that is a vivid part of the memory of those alive now.The principal service of Jochen Hellbeck's "Revolution on My Mind" is that it transports us back to that earlier, impassioned revolutionary Soviet Union, a time of epic hope and energy, when the transformation of man and history seemed imminent. There were no limits to the possibilities. Justice would reign on earth. In time, the state would wither away. And, as Leon Trotsky predicted at the end of his book "Literature and Revolution," the "average human type" would "rise to the heights of an Aristotle, a Goethe, or a Marx." Then, as if that were not grandiose enough, he added: "And above this ridge new peaks will rise."
This would be the greatest transformation in human history, and of course no one wanted to be left out. People kept diaries in the Stalin era for many reasons, according to Hellbeck, who teaches history at Rutgers, but chief among them was "a striving to inscribe their life into a larger narrative of the revolutionary cause." Both the Soviet experience and the Soviet diary were of a different order of magnitude from the bourgeois diary with its crabbed and selfish world. Nor should the Soviet diary be confused with anything depicted in dystopias like George Orwell's "1984," in which hero Winston Smith's "diaristic 'I' turns against the goals and values propagated by the state."
Diaries were not refuges but instruments of transformation. By definition, no one (except perhaps Stalin) had fully achieved the "rationalist zeal, optimistic self-confidence, and creative energy" of the New Man. Some diarists had subjective problems — lack of will, enthusiasm, elan — while others had more objective problems, like wrong class origins. Stepan Podlubny, one of the diarists whose writings are treated in detail, was a "wolf in disguise," in other words, the son of a kulak. His diary was an attempt both to forge a new identity and to conceal an old one. The tensions were high and the ironies could be painful and perverse. In an effort to conceal his own class origins, Podlubny became so zealous a Komsomol activist that the security police entrusted him with the task of unmasking disguised class enemies. He himself was finally outed in 1936 and expelled from the Komsomol.
For another diarist, Alexander Afinogenov, a wealthy and famous playwright whose works were often personally critiqued by Stalin, expulsion from the Writers' Union afforded him the opportunity to do what he always knew a writer must: "to be a worthy engineer of souls, he must engineer his own soul." His description of the anguish of ostracism, inner emptiness and regeneration parallels classic accounts of religious rebirth. "I killed the self inside me — and then a miracle happened," Afinogenov wrote.
Afinogenov was at the same time aware that, when searching an apartment, one of the first things the security police sought to confiscate was diaries. And so he addresses the police in the pages of that selfsame diary, seeking to forestall them with mind games: "But once I had already understood that you wouldn't believe anything in any case and would only scoff as you read what I had recorded, then I was immediately relieved of your presence during my work on my diary and once again began to write freely and simply, as I had done before, in years past."
But all such cunning and calculation was melted in the blast furnace of his conversion, which left him overflowing with gratitude to both Stalin — "Long live He, to whom all my thoughts are now directed. Long may he live and rule over us with his genius, the genius of Georgian passion, Russian reason, American sweep, Leninist revolutionary principledness, and Human humaneness!"— and the police: "And thanks also from the bottom of my heart to those, up there at the Lubianka."
Members of the pre-revolutionary intelligentsia had problems that differed from the difficulties of those who were of kulak origin or who had strayed from the straight and narrow path of Bolshevism. Theirs tended to be an ambivalent relationship to Soviet socialism. On the one hand, the system promised to deliver on the old intelligentsia dream of social justice and an end to alienation. And, on the other, that system was repellent in its brutality and vulgarity. But failure to join in the great roaring parade meant a life of loneliness, isolation, sorrow. The diary of Zinaida Denisevskaya charts a soul's progress from that isolation to a point where the "world of her personal life had been extended to 'at least the borders of the U.S.S.R.'; in her thoughts and feelings she 'shared the interests, hopes, and dreams of the U.S.S.R.'"
Insightful and intelligent, this book could have sometimes probed deeper into the motivations and sincerity of the principal diarists. The style, devoid of grace and wit, makes the material seem less interesting than it in fact is. Occasionally, the author makes remarks of astounding silliness: "The purges appear less grotesque, though, when seen as a large-scale project of classification conceived for the pursuit of irrefutable truth regarding the state of individuals' souls."
However, when Hellbeck confines his remarks to the texts themselves and to the role that diaries played in Soviet life under Stalin, he delivers much that is fresh and useful. It reminded me of an old Stalinist I knew who, though having renounced Stalinism, still looked back fondly on the ardor of the days when he was one of 40 workers who marched 5 miles, singing, to build a dam with shovels, flattening the cement with their boots. "Our pride was immense," said the old Stalinist. "Nothing can stain the purity of those memories!"
This book takes the reader back to those nearly unimaginable times, and for that alone, its shortcomings are excused.Richard Lourie is the author of "The Autobiography of Joseph Stalin" and "Sakharov: An Autobiography."Harvard University Press
Revolution on My Mind:
Writing a Diary Under Stalin
By Jochen Hellbeck
Harvard University Press
436 pages. $29.95

TITLE: Ludwig's legacy
AUTHOR: By Galina Stolyarova
PUBLISHER: Staff Writer
TEXT: This year, Bonn's month-long Beethoven Festival takes Russia as its central theme.BONN, Germany — With its continuing voyage through regions and centuries, this year's Beethoven Festival is focusing on Russia as its main theme.The internationally acclaimed Russian pianist Mikhail Pletnev and the Russian National Orchestra gave two overwhelming performances of the full cycle of Beethoven's five piano concertos last Saturday and Sunday, during the first week of the festival that runs throughout September.
Pletnev's free yet sublime manner which earned the performer international praise, especially in the repertoire of Chopin, Rachmaninov and Mozart, was forcefully supported by the dark, deep sound of an orchestra that played with much intensity and vigor.
"This interpretation of Beethoven, with its distinct Russian flavor, is very unusual," said Ilona Schmiel, director of the festival. "By contrast, the Deutsche Kammerphilarmonie, which follows the Russian orchestra and performs on Friday, takes a directly opposite approach."
Schmiel is the brains behind the regional concept of the Beethoven Festival, which aims to highlight diversity in Beethoven interpretations with a national character and trace mutual influences between the composer and musical cultures of various regions, putting the German composer in the context of a specific region of Europe.
The prestigious festival was first held on what would have been Beethoven's 75th birthday in 1845 (he died in 1827 aged 57) and had Franz Lizst as its first artistic director. It introduced the country focus in 2004, when the music of the Czech regions of Bohemia and Moravia was featured prominently in the program. This was followed by a French focus in 2005. After a Russian theme this year, the festival will explore the connection between Beethoven and Great Britain in 2007.
The city of Bonn perceives Beethoven as its top "brand," as do the festival's heavyweight sponsors. That allows the festival to run for a month, featuring sixty concerts by some of the world's most distinguished musicians.
Christoph Eschenbach conducted the renowned Philadelphia Orchestra at the opening concert on Aug. 31. Aside from the Russian National Orchestra, audiences this year have a chance to listen, among others, to Amsterdam's Royal Concertgebouw Orchestra, Die Deutsche Kammerphilharmonie Bremen and the Gewandhaus Orchestra Leipzig.
"Beethoven's name will be used increasingly in the future in Bonn's marketing strategies," Bonn mayor Barbel Dieckmann said after the opening of this year's event. "I very much welcome the focus the festival has on foreign culture, as it befits Bonn's international status."
Although Ludwig van Beethoven never visited Russia, the links between the composer and this country are many and strong.
Beethoven's "Missa Solemnis," which the composer often referred to as his most important work, had its world premiere in St. Petersburg in 1824. The performance at the St. Petersburg Philharmonic Hall caused a sensation.
Beethoven was much appreciated in Russia. In 1806, Count Andrei Razumovsky commissioned three string quartets from the composer. The "Russian Quartets," inspired by Russian folk tunes, originally received tepid reviews but eventually won over audiences both in Russia and beyond.
Each year, the festival incorporates a series of recitals that draw attention to a new generation of performers and winners of international classical music competitions. One of the performances in these series, a morning recital last Sunday at the Schumann House, was given by Russian pianist Eldar Nebolsin, who took first prize at the prestigious Svyatoslav Richter competition in Moscow in 2005.
Russian-born Nebolsin, now a resident of Spain, put together a winning program to showcase the best of his performing style: at turns ponderous, passionate and energetic. He navigated with brilliance and confidence through the dissonances and contrasts of Sofia Gubaidulina's "Chaconne," stormed with almost playful ease through Beethoven's rich palette of "Eroica Variations" and enhanced the emotionality of lyrical passages in Chopin's variations on themes from Mozart's "Don Giovanni."
Nebolsin's technique was flawless in Rachmaninov's sophisticated and challenging preludes, which concluded the program.
As it does in Nebolsin's recital program, Russian music from various ages interweaves with Beethoven's works and other European classical works in the program of the festival.
Modest Mussorgsky's "Songs and Dances of Death" and Dmitry Shostakovich's "Suite for Jazz Orchestra No. 2" and "Hamlet Suite from the Film Score" were performed at an open-air concert on Sept. 1 by the Beethoven Orchester Bonn.
This year, the festival has commissioned a chamber quartet and even a multimedia opera from Ukrainian composer Vladimir Tarnopolsky, a co-founder of the Association of Contemporary Music in Moscow, and the driving force behind the establishment of the Center for Contemporary Music at the Moscow State Conservatory. Called "Beyond the Shadows," the opera explores a set of challenges confronting modern society and finds inspiration in Plato's allegory of the cave, and the works of Pliny the Elder.
Set to premiere on Sept. 20, the opera presents a synthesis of the arts. Singers turn into actors; the dancers of the contemporary dance company Palindrome have a substantial presence on stage and musicians from Cologne ensemble Musik Fabrik will follow Tarnopolsky's ideas of extracting new sounds from traditional instruments.
The Beethoven Festival is successfully juxtaposing tradition with innovation and thrives on contrasts.
"Look at Beethoven" is a pilot project that runs for the first time this year and features a series of short films about Beethoven shot by young directors and shown in Beethoven House, where the composer was born in 1770.
Not all of these filmmakers have a keen interest in classical music.
Some of the visual associations offered in these experimental works would be unthinkable for mainstream classical music historians and critics.
In one film, the composer appears in the image of a modern Napoleon, with a constantly ringing mobile phone. The ringtone is, predictably, a Beethoven theme. The Beethoven Festival found the directors among students of German filmmaking academies and the younger staff of the country's television channels.
When she decided to push through with this project, festival director Schmiel was well aware that Beethoven's music meant little to some of the participating directors, and that the resulting films would be drastically different in quality. But the festival went ahead with the plan.
"We felt that short films would be a good medium in an attempt to try and get more interest in classical music, especially from younger people," Schmiel said. Schmiel believes the "advantage of this project is that the directors do not look at Beethoven in the same way that most musicologists would," she said. "To one director, Beethoven is a hero, while to another he is, first and foremost, an old man losing his hearing."
To convert a greater share of younger audiences to classical music, the festival for the first time this year offered one and two-day internships for schoolchildren in various departments. All participants could take up the opportunity on one condition: they must write a short note about their view of the festival and its possible development for a special web-page.
"Some of them said that Beethoven is the stuff that old people rock to," Schmiel said. "But after the internship some others will see this event, or classical concert halls, as a place for them."Links: www.beethovenfest.de

TITLE: Unrepentant, Malkin Signs For Penguins
AUTHOR: By Alan Robinson
PUBLISHER: The Associated Press
TEXT: PITTSBURGH — Finally, Yevgeny Malkin wasn't worried about hiding his emotions or himself. He signed the contract he wanted to sign, with the team he wants to play for.Malkin, under so much pressure to keep playing in Russia that he hid out for five days in Finland to escape his Russian team, signed his first NHL contract Tuesday with the Pittsburgh Penguins.
No arm-twisting or middle-of-the-night negotiations were needed to make him sign a deal worth at least $3 million and probably much more. The 20-year-old Malkin was so determined to play in North America this year, one of Russia's best-known sports figures was willing to risk his image back home to do so.
"His dream was to come to Pittsburgh and start his career in the NHL, and he had to go through a lot in the last couple of weeks to achieve that," Penguins owner Mario Lemieux said. "It's always difficult when you've got a different country and a different language."
It has already been a tough time for arguably the best player in the world not previously in the NHL. Malkin, a gifted scorer and playmaker, is expected to team with Sidney Crosby to give Pittsburgh a dynamic 1-2 center combination.
After signing a one-year deal last month to remain with his hometown Metallurg Magnitogorsk, reportedly at 3 a.m. following hours of persuasion, he immediately regretted the decision and phoned agent J.P. Barry for help.
Barry arranged to meet Malkin at the Helsinki airport when Metallurg arrived for training camp on Aug. 12, and the two secretly left together. They stayed hidden in a hotel there for five days until Malkin was granted a U.S. visa.
The agent wasn't as concerned as much for Malkin's safety as he was that the Russian team, which was still in town, would try to get him back.
"We were worried that whenever there's a mystery and someone can't be found, they would try to look for him and if they could find him, they would try to continue the psychological pressure," Barry said. "We didn't want that to happen. It was really necessary for us to keep him away from that possibility."
According to Barry, Malkin was followed to his home — the agent isn't certain by whom — whenever the team felt he had been in contact with his North American-based agents.
Once Malkin was gone, Metallurg general director Gennady Velichkin rebuked his star and threatened to sue the Penguins. Barry expects Metallurg to file for an injunction that would prevent Malkin from playing in the NHL, though no Russian team has ever successfully done so with a player once he has left.
Malkin said he has patched up his relationship with Velichkin the last few weeks, after he was initially worried about how the team would react.
"I definitely was a little concerned," he said, speaking through an interpreter. "But, knowing him for so many years, I had to believe that he wouldn't go for any harsh measures toward me. After I had my visa obtained, I called my parents and informed them that everything was fine and I was doing great. They contacted Mr. Velichkin and actually now they are doing well and Mr. Velichkin doesn't have any hard feelings against me."

TITLE: Sharapova, Yuzhny Make Big Noise at U.S. Open
AUTHOR: By Ben Walker
PUBLISHER: The Associated Press
TEXT: NEW YORK — Maria Sharapova and Andy Roddick are making all kinds of noise at this U.S. Open — shrieks, shouts and screams.Accenting almost every groundstroke with a grunt, Sharapova showed off an assortment of shots and sounds Wednesday night that unnerved Tatiana Golovin 7-6 (4), 7-6 (0) and put her into the semifinals against No. 1 Amelie Mauresmo.
Golovin approached the chair umpire at one point, trying to turn down the volume.
"It was kind of a little loud out there. It is distracting. You don't need to be screaming that loud. It's OK to grunt, but you don't have to be that loud," Golovin said. "Like I don't think the ball actually goes faster if she's grunting."
So, does Sharapova realize her cacophony bothers some opponents?
"I don't worry about it," she said.
Roddick then finished off a hectic day at Flushing Meadows, flattening Lleyton Hewitt 6-3, 7-5, 6-4 in a pairing of former champions.
Roddick punctuated his victory with the shot of the match, racing in to reach a drop shot and zinging a winning return. Coached by Jimmy Connors and putting on a familiar scene, Roddick raised his arms, yelled and soaked in a standing ovation.
"I just appreciate playing good tennis again," the ninth-seeded Roddick said. "I'd love to be a great player, but I feel like I'm very good right now."
On a day that Roger Federer and James Blake advanced to a quarterfinal matchup, 54th-ranked Mikhail Yuzhny caused the biggest racket when he upset No. 2 Rafael Nadal 6-3, 5-7, 7-6 (5), 6-1.
"Unbelievable," said the Russian, who will play Roddick in the semis. "I cannot believe I beat Rafa in four sets."
Nadal looked worn down from the start and never got in gear. Usually full of energy, he hung his head during late changeovers.
"I am trying to fight, but I wasn't," Nadal said. "I was not my best in the fourth, no? I know I lost a big opportunity. And after that, Mikhail is playing unbelievably... all winners."
The top-seeded Federer and the fifth-seeded Blake each won in straight sets.
Federer is trying for his third straight U.S. Open title and his ninth major overall. He had little trouble with Marc Gicquel, winning the first 12 points on the way to a 6-3, 7-6 (2), 6-3 victory.
Blake saved all 15 break points against No. 12 Tomas Berdych and beat him 6-4, 6-3, 6-1. To reach his first major semifinal, Blake must beat Federer.
"If I play my best, then I don't see any reason why I can't win. If he's playing his best, then I can see a reason why I might not win, but it's possible," Blake said. "He's lost before. He is human."
Seventh-seeded Nikolay Davydenko and No. 14 Tommy Haas also won in matches suspended because of Tuesday's rain, and will meet in the quarters.
Russia's Davydenko put out Britain's Andy Murray.
Mauresmo moved closer to her third Grand Slam title this year, defeating No. 12 Dinara Safina 6-2, 6-3.
Mauresmo played 31 majors over 11 seasons without a championship until breaking through this season.
"It was annoying when, two years ago, I got the No. 1 ranking and I kept being asked that question: 'Yes, but you haven't won a Grand Slam, blah, blah, blah. Is it normal?"' Mauresmo said.
Second-seeded Justine Henin-Hardenne's 6-4, 6-4 win over Lindsay Davenport means this is the first year in the Open era — which began in 1968 — that no American woman reached any Grand Slam semifinal.
Henin-Hardenne plays No. 19 Jelena Jankovic in the semis on Friday, the same day the third-seeded Sharapova takes on Mauresmo in a featured match.
"She's the one to beat right now," Sharapova said. "I feel like I have nothing to lose."
Sharapova made it to her seventh semifinal appearance in the last 10 Grand Slam events, dating to her 2004 Wimbledon championship.
Sharapova's father, Yury, kept a watchful eye on the match. He seemed to signal his daughter at one point when he pulled a banana out of his bag. Moments later, she took out a banana and ate it during a changeover.
"Is it a coincidence? Probably," she said.

TITLE: Hiddink Debut Fails To Produce Much Punch
PUBLISHER: The St. Petersburg Times
TEXT: Guus Hiddink's first competitive game in charge of the Russian national team — a Euro 2008 qualifier against Croatia — ended in a 0-0 draw in Moscow on Wednesday.Russia, which beat Latvia in a friendly last month, struggled to create many clear-cut chances in a match that was high on endeavor but low on quality.
With captain Yevgeny Aldonin anchoring the midfield, it was left to Zenit St. Petersburg's Andrei Arshavin to provide the creative spark.
The skillful forward created Russia's best chance of the first half, sending Diniyar Bilyaletdinov through with a defense-splitting pass, only to see the midfielder blast over the goal from a tight angle in the 38th minute.
Croatia came out the stronger side after the break. Ivan Klasnic hit the post from 30 meters out with a curling free kick in the 48th minute.
In the very next attack, Niko Kranjcar unleashed a fierce shot from outside the area, which Russia keeper Igor Akinfeyev could only parry. The ball fell to Brazilian-born Eduardo da Silva, but, fortunately for the Russia keeper, the striker skewed the follow-up wide.
That was the wake-up call Hiddink's team needed. Arshavin was at the center of Russia's best moves and provided the game's outstanding piece of skill when, with a spin and a feint, he beat two defenders eight meters from goal before a lunging defender managed to clear the danger.
Russia threw players forward late in the game in search of a winner, but Croatia held on for a point.
Russia next hosts Israel on Oct. 7.

TITLE: British Prime Minister Tony Blair to Quit in a Year
AUTHOR: By Kevin Sullivan and Mary Jordan
PUBLISHER: The Washington Post
TEXT: LONDON — Prime Minister Tony Blair, the second-longest-serving British leader since the 19th century, said Thursday that he will resign his post within the next 12 months.Blair, whose once-soaring popularity has been badly damaged by the war in Iraq and his close alliance with President Bush, said in a televised comment to reporters that the upcoming Labour Party conference would be his last as leader. But he refused to name a precise date for his resignation.
The prime minister is bowing to intense pressure and a political rebellion that accelerated Wednesday when eight junior members of his government resigned. They and other former loyalists demanded that Blair set a date for his departure or step down now.
"I no longer believe that your remaining in office is in the interest of either the party or the country," said the resignation letter of Tom Watson, the highest-ranking of the eight Labour Party legislators who quit Blair's government.
Blair finds himself in a predicament reminiscent of that faced in 1990 by Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. After serving nearly 12 years, a defiant Thatcher was ousted in a rebellion by members of her Conservative Party, bringing a graceless end to her historic premiership.
"The sooner Blair goes, the more honorable his exit will be. The best course is to leave immediately," said Vernon Bogdanor, a professor of government at Oxford University.
The timing is dominating political debate in Britain in the weeks leading up to the annual meetings of the major political parties.
Blair, who has said he will not seek re-election to a fourth term, until now has declined to name a date for his departure, saying it would only embolden his critics to demand his immediate resignation. He has promised to resign in ample time for his successor, most likely Chancellor Gordon Brown, to prepare for the general election that must be held no later than 2010.
Several of Blair's top cabinet ministers, including Environment Secretary David Miliband, a close ally, said this week that Blair would probably leave in about a year, which analysts interpreted as a signal from Blair. Other published reports said Blair might leave next summer, or next May after the 10th anniversary of his landslide 1997 election.
Adding to the frenzy of speculation was the publication this week of a memo, written by Blair aides, outlining a series of television appearances, speeches and interviews to mark Blair's final days: "He needs to go with the crowds wanting more," the memo said. "He should be the star who won't even play that last encore."
But Blair's future turned from parlor game to political crisis on Wednesday with the surprise resignations of the former loyalists.
His Downing Street office said that more than 80 other Labour members of Parliament had signed a letter saying they were satisfied with the schedule described by Miliband. But analysts called the resignations proof that Blair's ability to govern was slipping. They also follow the decision of nearly 40 British Muslims to quit the Labour Party in protest of Blair's support of Israel in its recent military campaign in Lebanon.
"There's great hostility in the Labour Party for Blair's support for Israel" in the Lebanon conflict, Bogdanor said. Party members felt that they were not consulted over the issue and that Blair followed "too blindly in the path of the Americans" while opinion polls showed the British public believed that "Israel's actions were disproportionate," he said.
One of the people who resigned from the government Wednesday, Mark Tami, said in an interview that "my concern is the great uncertainty hanging over the government. All everyone wants to talk about is when he's going, and we have to move on."
Another member of the group, Chris Mole, said in an interview that Blair should leave "sooner than later" to make way for Brown because "he has lost the confidence of his party at large and the people in the country in general."
Mole said that was partly because "all leaders become unpopular over time."