SOURCE: The St. Petersburg Times DATE: Issue #790 (55), Tuesday, July 30, 2002 ************************************************************************** TITLE: Pulkovo Jet Crash Leaves 14 Dead AUTHOR: By Claire Bigg and Valeria Korchagina PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: A Pulkovo Airlines Il-86 passenger jet slammed into woods shortly after taking off from Sheremetyevo Airport on its way to St. Petersburg on Sunday, killing 14 of the 16 people on board, all from St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Oblast. The wide-body aircraft, which can seat up to 350 passengers, is generally considered Russia's safest, having never suffered a fatal crash in its 22-year history. Citing experts investigating the accident, Reuters on Monday reported that a faulty tail stabilizer, a small wing on the tail of the aircraft that helps control the angle of the plane's nose during flight, may have caused the crash. "Our main version is a spontaneous move by the stabilizer into an extreme position that caused the plane to make a steep climb at high speed," Valery Chernyayev, chairperson of the commission investigating the crash, told NTV television. "The stabilizer jammed two seconds after take-off." The stabilizer was found among the wreckage of the plane, and Chernyayev said that the stabilizers on all Il-86 jets would be checked. The Il-86, with two pilots and 14 other crew members, took off at 3:18 p.m. and reached a height of about 200 meters before plummeting to the ground and bursting into flames, airport officials and eyewitness said. A plume of thin smoke was drifting up from the charred wreckage several hours after the crash. Only the tail section of the plane remained relatively intact. The two survivors had been seated in the rear section. "The three of us were sitting together in the tail, when the plane started shaking," flight attendant Tatyana Moiseyeva told daily newspaper Izvestia. "We understood that something had gone wrong." Interfax reported on Monday that a source from within the investigation commission said that the voice recorder, one of the three "black boxes" that record the systems of the aircraft during flight, all of which were recovered, had not logged the crew's conversation. Earlier on Monday Russian media reported that the plane had skipped a routine mechanical check up during its stop-over in Moscow, but Pulkovo representatives denied that this was the case. "This was done in line with the rules," Tarasevich said in an interview with Reuters. "these engineers have a right to perform technical examinations during stopovers." The two survivors, Moiseyeva and fellow flight attendant Arina Vinogradova were both injured in the crash and remained hospitalized on Monday. Moiseyeva suffered a concussion and other head injuries, broken bones in her shoulder and forearm, an abdominal injury and burns to her ankles. She remained in serious condition on Monday, although doctors expected her to survive, the Associated Press reported. Miraculously, Vinogradova suffered only a broken wrist and various cuts and bruises, said Dmitry Fedorovsky at the Botkin Hospital in Moscow. "I told her that she should start writing her memoirs because it is unique to survive such a catastrophe," he said in televised remarks. The plane was returning without passengers to St. Petersburg from the Black Sea resort of Sochi after completing a charter flight, said Vadim Sanzharov, the Sheremetyevo director who was in charge of operations Sunday. Eyewitnesses described what could have been a stall - when an aircraft falls or goes out of control after attempting to climb with insufficient airspeed. "The plane was heading upward, and everything seemed normal," said Andrei Korotayev, 15. "Then suddenly it looked as if the plane had stopped. After that it started falling down flat." He said the plane then banked slightly to the left and struck the ground, exploding in a ball of fire. "We heard screams for help," said his friend, Sergei Durygin, also 15. Paul Duffy, a Moscow-based independent aviation specialist, said Monday that the eyewitnesses' testimonies were so varied that they did not enable experts to make even preliminary suggestions as to what caused the crash. Konstantin Tarasevich, a Pulkovo spokesperson, said in a telephone interview on Monday that both the pilot and copilot of the aircraft were highly qualified fliers. "Konstantin Ivanov was an experienced pilot," Tarasevich said. "He had 13, 298 flying hours behind him. Vladimir Voronov had 11, 386 hours in the air." Tarasevich said that Pulkovo Airlines did not as yet possess any information concerning the families of the victims. He only said that flight commander Ivanov, copilot Voronov, navigator Valery Shcherbin, flight engineer Boris Kushnerov, Moiseyeva and Vinogradova were all from St. Petersburg. The other flight attendants were either from St. Petersburg or the Leningrad Oblast. "As far as we know, the relatives are still in St. Petersburg, apart from two who flew to Moscow on Sunday evening. We are not planning to arrange a flight to Moscow, unless the relatives request this," he added. The 14 bodies of those killed Sunday were recovered within a few hours of the crash, but their identification could take some time as the bodies were badly burned, Interfax reported on Monday. Before the crash, Pulkovo Airlines operated a fleet of nine Il-86s, all built in the 1980s. The airline's last fatal accident was in 1991, when a Tu-154 jet broke in half during a hard landing in St. Petersburg. Twelve people died in the accident "Pulkovo airlines have a very competent operational and technical base," Duffy said. "If you consider its size and the number of flights it operates, Pulkovo airlines hold a very good record." The Il-86 has enjoyed a near-perfect safety record, suffering only three accidents since it started regular passenger flights in December 1980, Duffy added. "In the first accident, an Indian plane landed on the Il-86, which was parked in proximity of the runway. The Indian airline was training pilots. So the Il-86 was not to blame in this incident," he said. The second accident involving an Il-86 happened in September last year, when an Aeroflot Il-86 made an emergency landing in Dubai after an engine caught fire. All 307 passengers and 14 crew members escaped uninjured. "The Il-86 is a very strong and very reliable aircraft. It is, together with the Boeing 777, the only plane that has never killed a passenger. And the Boeing 777 has only been in service six or seven years, whereas Il-86 has been flying for 22 years," Duffy said. Ilyushin has built 103 of the aircraft. The large size and safety record of the plane has made it a favorite in Russia. President Vladimir Putin flies in an Il-86, and three modified Il-86s, known as the Il-80, serve as mobile command posts for the military in case of war. Tarasovich said that Pulkovo Airlines would continue to fly Il-86 aircraft. TITLE: Analysts Warn of Possible Economic Crisis AUTHOR: By Victoria Lavrentieva PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - Is there an economic crisis brewing - perhaps even one like the one that brought the country to a halt in August 1998? There is growing concern among economists that the answer to that question is more likely yes than no. They say that, against the backdrop of a depressed world economy, Russia's basic macroeconomic indicators may look healthy but ,beneath the gloss, several trends have emerged recently that give cause for alarm and suggest that the positive effects of the 1998 ruble devaluation have been exhausted: Growth is slowing; investment is falling; corporate profits have halved; public-sector wage arrears are on the rise; the ruble is rising in real terms against the dollar, making domestic producers less competitive; and barter appears to be making a comeback. "The number of warning lights that have started flashing in the last several months is concerning despite the apparent health of the basic ratios," said Roland Nash, head of research at Renaissance Capital. "First, and most widely recognized, is slowing growth," he said. After posting record gross-domestic-product growth of 9 percent in 2000, the pace slowed to 5 percent last year and the government now expects 3.8-percent growth this year. The official forecast for the year was originally 3.6 percent, which led President Vladimir Putin to chastise his government publicly for not being ambitious enough. Last week, the Economic Development and Trade Ministry announced a rosier outlook, saying that the new number was based on higher-than-expected growth of 3.8 percent in the first half of the year, up from 3.2 percent in the first quarter. "[This] allows us to say that the economy has broken the negative trend of the first quarter," the ministry said in a statement, claiming, without elaboration, that real sector companies now "feel more secure" than earlier in the year, despite external pressures such as a stronger ruble, rising labor costs and higher tariffs. Even so, assuming Russia can maintain 3.5-percent annual growth, it will take 100 years to achieve the average per-capita income level enjoyed by the European Union, if the EU grows at an average of 2 percent a year, according to a recent Economist Intelligence Unit study. However, even 3.5 percent may not be sustainable, economists say, without further structural reforms and a radical overhaul of the banking system. If Russia continues to evolve the way it is now, "a new crisis will be inevitable," said Yevgeny Gavrilenkov, chief economist with investment bank Troika Dialog. Gavrilenkov characterized that evolution as one along the lines of the ill-fated South Korean chaebols - huge, vertically integrated conglomerates that emerged in the absence of a strong financial sector. He said Russia is now developing an "Asian economic model and an administratively driven system." Another worrying sign is industrial production, which is slowing faster than overall economic growth. After growing 5.1 percent in the first six months of 2001, industrial-production growth slowed to 3.1 percent in the first half of 2002. Marcin Wiszniewski, an economist who tracks Russia for Morgan Stanley in London, said the current slowdown did not come as a surprise, because the pace of industrial production and GDP growth were expected to slow after the initial boost from ruble devaluation and high oil prices was exhausted and spare capacity in the economy was largely utilized. "But, even if we devalue the ruble now, it won't help to support growth because, production capacities are full," Gavrilenkov said. "So, in the end, economic growth is driven by consumption demand and investments." Part of the slowdown can be attributed to shrinking levels of investment - both foreign and domestic. While the level of domestic investment grew 18 percent in 2000 and 15 percent last year, it grew by only 2 percent in the first six months of 2002. Furthermore, foreign direct investment actually shrank, reaching $1.4 billion in the first half of 2002, down $500 million from the same period last year. More worrying still is that corporate profits are down nearly 50 percent year on year, from 501 billion rubles ($16.7 billion) in the first half of 2001 to 316 billion rubles in the same period this year. "A combination of real ruble appreciation of around 8 percent per annum, real wage growth of nearly 20 percent per annum and rising utility tariffs are rapidly increasing firm costs," Nash said. These negative factors, combined with tax changes and increased expenditure obligations, have left regional budgets struggling to make ends meet. "In May, the federal budget was forced to bail out regional budgets, a transfer that pushed the federation into its first cash deficit since 2000," Nash said. This, in turn, has led to an increase in arrears for the first time since the 1998 crisis. Tax arrears to the federal budget increased by 11.9 percent during the first half of 2002 to 530.8 billion rubles ($17 billion), a Tax Ministry official told Prime Tass on Friday, without elaborating. And Putin last week criticized the cabinet for not paying state wages on time and failing to meet budget targets in the social sphere. "People are going on vacation and they are not paid money to spend," Interfax quoted Putin as saying. Putin stressed that, despite pledges by the government to cut wage arrears by the summer, they "have grown, and considerably so." On Friday, Deputy Prime Minister Valentina Matviyenko said that wage arrears increased by 1 billion rubles in June to about 3 billion rubles. Especially hard-hit are the country's poorly paid teachers, who have yet to receive their yearly summer bonuses. Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said Monday that the government would do so by Sept. 1. Similar problems are facing the largest state-controlled companies. Natural monopolies Unified Energy Systems and Gazprom are both having problems getting customers to pay - suggesting that the old days of barter payments may be making a comeback. UES said Friday that its level of cash collections has fallen from 100 percent to 98 percent in the first quarter of 2002. "Two percent is a very huge number for us, taking into account the payment volumes," UES spokesperson Yury Melikhov said. And gas giant Gazprom said the debts of its customers in the same period rose by 1.6 billion rubles ($50.8 million) to 45.1 billion rubles, equal to roughly a third of its investment budget this year. "For the first time since the devaluation, there are the first signs that nonpayments and barter may again be on the rise," said Nash. So what does the future hold? Nash said Russia is going through the transition that all emerging markets go through at one stage or another - the redistribution of resources from those firms that cannot survive to those that can. "We all know that Russia has only started down the path of genuine structural transformation after macroeconomic stability was established," Wiszniewski said. "As always in transition economies, problems are deep and everything boils down to political commitment and the government's political ability to tackle those problems." But even here the government is not doing as much as it can, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. "The state's ability to implement its legislative program will remain constrained by institutional weakness, including corruption, crime, excessive bureaucracy and weak rule of law," the EIU wrote. It also concluded that economic reform has been hampered because it "has not been accompanied by efforts to build up democratic institutions." Gavrilenkov said Russia's future lies not in the further exploration of its natural resources, but in developing new export-oriented sectors. Russia is again at a fork in the road where one option is to reduce the entry barriers for business and develop the private financial sector, Gavrilenkov said. "This could bring about a resumption of high, sustainable growth rates," he said. "The other is the road to a further strengthening of the 'chaebols' as substitute intermediaries between savings and investments," Gavrilenkov said. "This would be building the foundation for a new crisis." TITLE: No Baltic Buildup, Says Ivanov PUBLISHER: Combined Reports TEXT: MOSCOW - Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said Monday that Moscow would not build up its forces in Kaliningrad as the Baltic states prepare to join NATO but insisted that keeping existing forces combat ready is a top priority. Ivanov warned earlier this month that Moscow would "react" if NATO builds bases in Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia. He said Russia could not rule out military measures in response. But, in Kaliningrad on Monday, he said, "We are not going to respond to this by building up our forces in the Kaliningrad region and saber-rattling," news agencies reported. "However, the state of our forces in the region and their rearming are a priority," Ivanov said. Meanwhile, French Foreign Minister Dominique de Villepin said Monday that France's support for Moscow in the visa dispute did not mean Paris had broken with its European partners. He told the daily Le Monde that President Jacques Chirac's backing for Moscow's position indicated his concern to find a solution. - AP, Reuters TITLE: The seventh running of the "Knight's Castle" festival wrapped up at Vyborg Castle on Saturday. TEXT: Participants in the festival came from historical clubs across Russia. The participants had all themselves made the weapons and armor that was used, following historical techniques. The main event of the festival was a series of mock battles, staged according to strict rules, in which groups would attempt to capture Vyborg Castle from each other. The castle was built in 1293, when the Swedes first captured Karelia from Novgorod. The St. Petersburg Times' photographer Alexander Belenky rode forth intrepidly on Saturday to capture on film some of the day's deeds of chivalry, revelry and knight life. TITLE: Kursk Enquiry Ends, No Charges Made PUBLISHER: Combined Reports TEXT: MOSCOW - Prosecutor General Vladimir Ustinov closed a criminal investigation into the Kursk nuclear-submarine sinking Friday, saying nobody would be charged because the disaster was caused by a technical malfunction - leaky torpedo propellant. Ustinov also defended the Kremlin's handling of the botched rescue efforts, saying that all 118 sailors aboard died within eight hours after the Kursk sank in the Barents Sea on Aug. 12, 2000, long before any help could arrive. "The disaster occurred at 11:28 and 26.5 seconds, Moscow time, because of the explosion of a practice torpedo inside the fourth torpedo tube," Ustinov said at a news conference. Within two minutes and 18 seconds after the first blast, other combat weapons detonated in a powerful explosions that threw the submarine to the seabed and killed most of its crew. When the navy located the submarine on the seabed some 30 hours after the catastrophe, "there was already no chance to save anyone," he said, speaking after reporting his verdict to President Vladimir Putin. He insisted that no one was to blame for the torpedo's malfunction. A government commission had previously pointed at a leaky torpedo as the only possible cause. "The investigators have decided to close the criminal case since no evidence of a crime has been found," Ustinov said. "Those who designed the torpedo couldn't foresee the possibility of its explosion." He dismissed allegations that the navy could have triggered the disaster by damaging the torpedo while loading it onto the Kursk. "There is no evidence and no testimony that the torpedo was dropped," Ustinov said. He said the torpedo exploded suddenly as the Kursk was moving under periscope close to the surface, preparing for a practice torpedo attack. He said the recovered shiplog and crew conversation recorders contained no sign of anything awry. Stanislav Proshkin, the head of the Gidropribor research institute that designed the torpedo, challenged the verdict in remarks carried by the Interfax-Military News Agency. He said the weapon could only have exploded after an internal impact, most likely a fire in the bow. Ustinov said the Northern Fleet chief and several other top naval officials fired last fall were ousted for flaws in organizing the exercise the Kursk had been taking part in that "weren't directly linked" to the disaster. But relatives of those who died on the Kursk voiced anger Monday that prosecutors decided not to press charges in the sinking and demanded a clearer explanation about the cause of the tragedy. Retired navy Captain Vladimir Mityayev, who lost a son on the Kursk and represents 39 Kursk sailors' families, said Ustinov's conclusions were unsatisfactory. "We had expected that those at fault for the death of our children would be named," he said in a telephone interview. "To me, this is a clear case of negligence." He said he and the families he represents have asked to meet with investigators for answers to what exactly happened on the Kursk. He has also asked a Moscow-based lawyer to examine the investigation results. Nadezhda Nekrasova, the mother of a Kursk sailor, told Ekho Moskvy radio on Saturday that she was willing to go to court in Russia or abroad to find out who was responsible for the sinking. Chief military prosecutor Alexander Savenkov said Monday that investigators will do their best to answer relatives' questions. Ustinov, in presenting the results of the investigation, defended the government's failure to save any of the crew. Twenty-three people survived the explosions in the bow and gathered in the less-damaged stern, but Ustinov said they died within eight hours, succumbing to carbon monoxide poisoning from fires and the rising pressure caused by icy water flooding the deck. The government had been criticized for missing a chance to save the Kursk crew because of its slow and botched response to the disaster. Putin came under fire for his failure to quickly end his Black Sea vacation when the Kursk sank. Putin on Friday ordered Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov to closely study the prosecutors' findings to prevent similar catastrophes. The navy has already pulled from service all torpedoes of the type that exploded. The torpedoes had a higher speed and range than conventional torpedoes powered by conventional electric engines making them highly attractive for the military. The ruined hulk of the submarine was salvaged and lifted off the seabed last fall. - AP, SPT TITLE: Former FSB Agent Faces Questions About Associate AUTHOR: By Oksana Yablokova PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - Former FSB officer Mikhail Trepashkin, who helps an independent commission created by a group of liberal lawmakers to investigate the 1999 apartment bombings, was summoned for questioning by the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office on Friday. Trepashkin said the questioning was unexpected and lasted for 10 hours. He was summoned the day after he attended a commission meeting at which his former colleague, Alexander Litvinenko, presented a statement from Achemez Gochiyayev, the main suspect in the bombings who is sought by the Federal Security Service (FSB). Trepashkin, fired from the FSB in 1997, said he was questioned in connection with an investigation that was opened into his activities in January, after FSB detectives searched his apartment looking for information on the exact whereabouts of Litvinenko, who fled to Britain in 2000 and has since been granted political asylum. Trepashkin said the detectives found documents related to cases he had investigated some 10 to 15 years ago while still with the FSB's predecessor, the KGB, which he was not supposed to have at home, and have been deciding since then whether to charge him with disclosing state secrets. "There was no mention of Litvinenko or the commission meeting during the questioning, but the urgent and unexpected way I was summoned makes me wonder whether there is a link," Trepashkin said in a telephone interview Friday. A spokesperson for the Chief Military Prosecutor's Office denied any link between the commission meeting and the questioning. "The questioning is a routine affair that had been scheduled for two weeks," spokesperson Mikhail Yanenko said. He said Trepashkin was summoned in connection with allegations that he had disclosed state secrets and was in illegal possession of ammunition, but he refused to elaborate. Trepashkin was one of a group of FSB officers who appeared with Litvinenko on television in 1998 when he accused his FSB superiors of ordering him to kill Boris Berezovsky. Litvinenko has since been closely associated with Berezovsky. On Thursday, via a video link from London, Litvinenko presented a statement he said was from Gochiyayev, in which he claimed to have had nothing to do with the 1999 explosions and to have been set up by a childhood friend whom he now suspects was an FSB agent. Litvinenko said the statement supports his claim that the Federal FSB, and not the Chechen rebels, as the official version goes, engineered the series of blasts in order to create a pretext for sending troops back into Chechnya in 1999. Sergei Kovalyov, a lawmaker and respected human rights activist who heads the commission, raised questions about the statement Friday. Kovalyov questioned why Gochiyayev did not name the old friend on whose behalf he said he had rented space in the two Moscow buildings where the explosions took place. "They are accusing the authorities of a terrible crime," Kovalyov told Interfax, saying that Gochiyayev's claims must be verified. TITLE: IN BRIEF TEXT: Historic Bombshell ST. PETERSBURG (SPT) - A bomb dating back to World War II has been discovered at a gas station situated in the Luzhsky neighborhood of the Leningrad Oblast, Interfax reported on Monday. The bomb, weighing 50 kilograms, was found during work being carried out on the territory of the station, the press service of Emergency Situations Ministry's Northwestern regional center told Interfax. A bomb-disposal team was clearing the unexploded bomb that appears to have been dropped by plane during the war, and it was expected to be removed on Tuesday.