SOURCE: The St. Petersburg Times DATE: Issue #864 (32), Tuesday, April 29, 2003 ************************************************************************** TITLE: Putin Seems at Loss for Words AUTHOR: By Andrei Zolotov Jr. PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - It is becoming a spring tradition in Moscow's political circles to watch for the date of President Vladimir Putin's state-of-the-nation address and interpret any delay, or suspected delay, as a sign of confusion or infighting within the Kremlin. Last year, about 10 days before the address was tentatively scheduled, Putin reprimanded the cabinet for proposing too modest a plan of economic growth and asked for fresh ideas, setting off a new round of speculation that the address would be pushed back further from the already-delayed April 18. It wasn't. This year, the address, which reportedly had first been planned for early April, is being postponed to mid-May. When he was president, Boris Yeltsin established the tradition of giving the year's most important political speech in late March. Elected president in March 2000, Putin delivered his first address before parliament on July 8 of that year. In 2001, it took place on April 3. But then it started to creep backward in the political calendar. Putin's representative to the State Duma, Alexander Kotenkov, was extra cautious last week in correcting reports that attributed to him the promise of a presidential address in May. "I was misqoted," Gazeta.ru quoted Kotenkov as saying. "I said I didn't know what was going to happen in May, but in April there will definitely be no presidential address." The presidential press service would give no official comment Monday on the timing and readiness of the presidential address. "What is there to comment about until the date is announced?" the official who picked up the phone said. "It is planned for early May, but a concrete date has not been fixed yet." When asked about the public holidays taking up much of early May, she said: "There is still time left until May 15." Political commentators said Monday that the delay, which originally could be explained by a need to re-write the foreign-policy chapter as a result of the Iraq war, is now increasingly seen as a result of difficulty in defining domestic priorities. Putin has an especially difficult job, they say, because it is his last state-of-the-nation address before the parliamentary and presidential elections, while the government has little positive news to report. "It is the last address before the elections and that's why it will be crucial," said Vyacheslav Nikonov, director of the Politika think tank. But he pointed to a lack of a coherent economic policy for the Kremlin to offer and conflicts within the government between Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov and his ministers. The outline of next year's budget is scheduled to be considered by the cabinet only this week. Nikolai Petrov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center who specializes in domestic policy, said this year's address is special because Putin has a responsibility to explain past policy decisions ahead of the elections. "He is the incumbent and cannot simply scold the government and present some grand ideas for the future," Petrov said. "He has to present the results of his work for the past three years and outline his vision for the next term." That is an exceptionally difficult task given that many of the reforms Putin had heralded in his past addresses - such as administrative and communal reforms - have gotten stuck or delayed when confronted with the bureaucracy's reluctance to reform itself, while Putin's strongest point, of having achieved stability in the country, contradicts his goal of reform. Last week, Izvestia ran a front-page article on the delay in the presidential address, arguing that the reforms have lost steam while Putin is focused on maintaining stability and is reluctant to push through unpopular measures. Meanwhile, the unsolved problems appear to travel from one presidential address to the next, Izvestia quoted an unnamed top-level Kremlin official as saying. The official also said that, like last year, the presidential administration is dissatisfied with the cabinet's proposals for the address. "The Kremlin is facing a fantastically difficult task," Izvestia argued. "How, relying on Putin's main postulate 'to do no harm' should one formulate an agenda for the next years of his rule?" Petrov said that while formulating strategy the Kremlin will have to justify some of its recent decisions, such as the reshuffle of the security sector earlier this year and the re-introduction last week of the previously abolished post of deputy prime minister in charge of defense industry. "It will not be easy to explain these moves as consistent policy," he said. Enter United Russia - the party of power, whose leaders appear to have begun the election campaign by criticizing the government while remaining part of it. "The president has a hard time formulating his policy for the elites and even more so for the electorate," Petrov said. TITLE: Russia To Shoulder Burden in CSTO AUTHOR: By Simon Saradzhyan PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - President Vladimir Putin and his counterparts from Armenia, Belarus and three Central Asian states agreed Monday to add meat to the bones of the Russia-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization by appointing a new chief of the post-Soviet military-political bloc and making plans to set up a rapid reaction force in Central Asia. The leaders of the six member countries, which also include Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, picked Russia's former border-guard chief, Nikolai Bordyuzha, to serve as the organization's secretary general, signaling their intention to transform it from a paper tiger into a full-fledged military-political alliance. Previously, the organization was run by career Russian diplomat Valery Nikonenko, who had no experience in military planning. In another demonstration of their aspirations to increase defense cooperation, they set a Jan. 1 deadline for establishing a headquarters for rapid-reaction forces in Central Asia. This regional force will reportedly have 6,000 service personnel and some two dozen warplanes deployed in Kant, Kyrgyzstan. "We were working insistently to make its work efficient, and it was necessary to create certain instruments for that," Putin said at the six leaders' joint news conference at Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov's country residence outside Dushanbe. Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev said Monday's talks were "a turning point" in the organization's history that would make its members "comrades in arms," The Associated Press reported. While yet to deploy the rapid reaction forces, the pact's members already have their air-defense forces jointly monitoring the skies within and without the former Soviet Union, and are in the process of establishing an air force base in Kant. The base, where more than a dozen Russian Su-27 interceptors, Su-25 attack planes and Il-76 transport aircraft are already based, will be officially inaugurated as the Collective Security Treaty Organization's air base in July, Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev said at the news conference. About 500 personnel are there now, according to reports in the Russian press. Putin also held separate talks with Rakhmonov on Monday and won his consent to give the 201st infantry division the status of an official Russian military base in Tajikistan. Whether or not this division becomes part of the organization's rapid reaction force, its 14,000 troops and the Kant-based warplanes would be able to provide sufficient combat support to any of the three Central Asian countries if they came under attack from lightly-armed Islamic militants, as Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan did in the late 1990s, independent experts said. And the plan to establishment a joint headquarters shows that the members want to ensure that such support is planned in advance and systematized, according to former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Vitaly Shlykov and Alexander Pikayev of the Carnegie Moscow Center. The appointment of Bordyuzha to the post of general secretary is also a sign that the Kremlin is serious about giving military capabilities to the organization, known by its acronym, ODKB. The fact that Bordyuzha served as Russia's border-guard chief, secretary of the Security Council and chief of the Kremlin staff and finally as Russia's ambassador to Denmark "speaks for itself," Pikayev said. Yet no one should expect the alliance to become a new Warsaw Pact, the experts said. Only Russia could be expected to commit ground troops if an ODKB member comes under attack, even though the collective security treaty obliges all signatories to lend assistance, according to Pikayev, Shlykov and Ivan Safranchuk of the Center for Defense Information. The reason is that none of the three Central Asian countries has armed forces that could be rapidly deployed, while Belarus and Armenia have no vital interests to defend in Central Asia. While the three Central Asian republics are in the alliance to ward off the threat that Islamic militants pose to their secular regimes, Belarus is mostly concerned about expansion of NATO in Europe and Armenia about Turkey's military might looming over the South Caucasus. "There is a diversity of security azimuths that cross only in one place - Russia," Safranchuk said. Russia views Belarus, the South Caucasus and Central Asia as zones of it vital interests. The alliance legitimizes Russia's military presence in Central Asia, allowing the Kremlin both to counter-balance the U.S. military presence in the region and interdict security threats posed by Islamic militants, the experts said. "To put it simply, Russia would rather fight in Osh [in Kyrgyzstan] than in Chechnya," Safranchuk said. ODKB stems from the so-called collective security treaty that Russia and five other former Soviet republics signed in Tashkent in 1992. Three more former Soviet republics joined the treaty in 1993. However, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan later pulled out of the treaty, with Tbilisi demanding withdrawal of Russian troops from Georgia and announcing that it would like to join NATO. So far, Russia has advanced furthest in military cooperation with Belarus. Russia maintains military bases in Armenia, Tajikistan, Georgia, Moldova and Kyrgyzstan, either under the auspices of this treaty or on the basis of bilateral treaties. Russian troops are due to withdraw from Georgia and Moldova in accordance with the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, but withdrawal has stalled. The Russian military also operates an early warning radar in Gabala, Azerbaijan, as well as launch pads for military missiles and rockets at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan. TITLE: Moscow Officials Say 300 Will Be a Success AUTHOR: By Claire Bigg and Irina Titova PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: In the latest indication that Moscow has taken the leading role in organizing the festivities for St. Petersburg's 300th anniversary, federal officials held a press conference here on Monday to put a positive spin on the event. Despite a number of delays and glitches in the city's reconstruction process, the Kremlin representatives spoke confidently of the preparations for the festivities scheduled for the end of May and the beginning of June. Since being appointed as presidential representative for the Northwest Region in March, Valentina Matviyenko has waged a campaign to take a more upbeat approach about the celebrations, and Monday was no different. Although Pulkovo International Airport will be closed to commercial flights from May 30 to June 1 in order to be able to handle the leaders of 45 countries and their entourages who will be in the city during that period, Matviyenko said that other arrangements were being made for non-official visitors to get to the city. She said that companies that would normally have offered flights to the city on the days in question had been asked to direct these flights to Moscow, and that the regular rail service to St. Petersburg from the capital would be supplemented with additional trains. Perhaps in answer to recent opinion polls, which suggest that the city's residents consider the government's plans for the anniversary to be aimed at VIPs - foreign or otherwise - and not at average city residents, Matviyenko stressed the positives she said the event would bring for St. Petersburgers. "Just because [the situation will be like this during] those days, there's no reason to think that the celebration is an event for official guests only," she said. "We have to keep in mind that these guests will come and leave, but [also] that, after they leave, a flow of businesspeople and tourists." She added that the Konstantinovsky Palace, which was in a state of near collapse a mere two years ago, has been renovated to serve as a new presidential residence. Matvienko said that the reconstructed palace - officially called the Palace of Congresses - will be important for drawing large-scale international events, such as economic conferences, to the city. "Up until now, St. Petersburg has just not had this type of place," she said. Matviyenko was not alone in talking up the work that had been done to prepare for the jubilee. Culture Minister Mikhail Shvydkoi said that his ministry, which is in overseeing a number of architectural-reconstruction projects linked with the anniversary, said that all of the funding and work on the projects was in order. One such project is a new storage facility for works owned by the State Hermitage Museum, which will be located in the Staraya Derevnya district and that Shvydkoi said will be completed at the beginning of May. "It will be the best museum storage facility in Europe," Shvydkoi said. "It will be almost a part of the Hermitage, attracting visitors of its own." Also included in the Culture Ministry's plans, according to Shvydkoi, are the completion of a new square open to the public around the Mikhailovsky Palace and the completion of a new building for the Museum of the History of Religion. The museum was initially housed in Kazan Cathedral, and the entire collection has yet to be moved to the new location. Nikolai Koshman, the head of state construction agency Gosstroi, devoted most of his attention at the briefing to financial questions, most of which he said had been taken care of with federal help. "I want to thank the finance ministry for solving all of the questions related to financing," he said. "Each of the 19 projects under the control of Gosstroi have received full financing and all of the conservation and development tasks for us in St. Petersburg's historical center will be completed." "All of the problems that had come up with regard to these projects have already been solved," he said. TITLE: New Astronauts Welcomed on Board ISS AUTHOR: By Sarah Karush PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: KOROLYOV, Moscow Region - The three residents of the international space station helped two newcomers through the hatch Monday, the start of a five-day hand-over that will be fraught with new challenges in the wake of the Columbia shuttle disaster. U.S. astronauts Kenneth Bowersox and Donald Pettit and Russian cosmonaut Nikolai Budarin welcomed American Edward Lu and Russian Yury Malenchenko aboard the space station after their Soyuz TMA-2 capsule successfully docked. The old crew will show Lu and Malenchenko around the station - much changed since the two were there in 2000 - and brush up their own knowledge of the Russian Soyuz, which they will use to return to Earth on Saturday. Originally, they were to return in the shuttle Atlantis, but the U.S. shuttle fleet has been grounded since the Columbia disintegrated during re-entry on Feb. 1, killing all seven people on board. Applause erupted at Mission Control in Korolyov, outside Moscow, when the Soyuz docked with the ISS at 9:56 a.m. about 400 kilometers above the Earth. "I am just so happy and proud to see everything work out so well," Lu's mother, Snowlily, said. About an hour and a half later, once the Soyuz was completely sealed to the ISS, Budarin pulled open the station's hatch, and Malenchenko and Lu floated inside. All five men then crowded together for a video linkup with Mission Control. They grinned as NASA and Russian space officials congratulated them on a job well done. "We're very, very proud today at the work of our international team," Bowersox answered. Malenchenko said he was shocked at how much the outpost has grown since he was there. "It has become so big and beautiful," he said. "We are very glad to be here, very glad to see our friends." He and Lu blasted off Saturday from Russia's Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on their way to the $60- billion station. Frederick Gregory, deputy administrator of NASA, called Monday's maneuver a "beautiful docking." "The international space station partnership has been tested by a great challenge. The partnership has risen to the challenge and demonstrated that we are able to overcome any obstacle on this road to the future," he said at a news conference at Mission Control. As the investigation into the Columbia disaster continues, it is unclear when shuttle flights will resume. Until then, the Soyuz and the Russian cargo ship Progress are the only links with the space station. Officials say it is important to maintain a constant presence on the station to keep it in working condition. The change in plans has thrown the Russian and U.S. space programs into some uncharted territory: Lu and Malenchenko will be the first permanent ISS crew of two people instead of three. They were forced to leave behind Russian cosmonaut Alexander Kaleri so that they could take along extra supplies in the smaller Soyuz. Saturday's ride to Earth, meanwhile, will be the first time U.S. astronauts have returned in a Soyuz. Bowersox, Pettit and Budarin are familiar with the technology, since a Soyuz is always kept at the station as a lifeboat. However, the crew did not count on returning in it and will get a refresher course from Malenchenko and Lu. The three returning crew members will be taking back an older Soyuz already docked at the station, while the one that carried Lu and Malenchenko will stay up there with them in case they need to evacuate quickly. The two are to remain at the station until October. The old and new crews will also try to fit some celebrations into their busy schedule: Pettit turned 48 on April 20, and Budarin turns 50 on Tuesday. Lu and Malenchenko brought gifts for them, Russian media reported. Back on Earth, the key question now is how to secure additional funding for Russia's space program, so that it can continue to pick up the slack left by the shuttle's grounding. Russia's space budget is about 5 percent of what it was at the end of the Soviet era. "We are counting on the government to fulfill its promises and, naturally, we are counting one our [foreign] partners," said Yury Semyonov, director of RKK Energiya, the company that builds Russian spacecraft. The issue of funding will be on the agenda when officials from NASA and the Russian Aviation and Space Agency meet May 5. U.S. law bars additional payments to Russia's space agency unless Washington confirms Russia has not transferred missile technology or nuclear, chemical or biological weapons to Iran in the previous year. U.S. officials have suggested other countries involved in the station could fill the gap. Despite the unresolved issues, those who watched the docking from Mission Control said an important hurdle had been overcome. "Everyone is proud - not just for what Ed is doing, but for NASA and the international space station and for the space program as a whole, especially after the Columbia," Lu's fiancee, Christine Romero, said. TITLE: Muscovites Find 1999 Blast Plays Tricks on the Memory AUTHOR: By Oksana Yablokova PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - A dog barking and racing around the debris of collapsed buildings. A parrot clinging to the bars of its cage. A bleeding cat lying in the dust. This is how some Muscovites recalled the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings, which left more than 200 people dead. The problem is, nothing they described actually took place. It was all suggested to them by psychologists as part of a new study probing the malleability of human memory. The idea that one could plant false memories following a traumatic experience was the hypothesis of Veronika Nourkova, a Moscow State University psychology professor. She recently completed a Fulbright-funded study, which she conducted in collaboration with two U.S. scholars. "We were interested in finding out how people react to equally tragic events," Nourkova. said in a recent interview in her office at the university. "The two events were similar in the way they occurred, but different in terms of emotional involvement of the survey participants and the way they were covered by media." Nourkova conducted the first portion of the study last spring with the participation of 80 Muscovites. Half of the subjects were asked to describe their memories of the Moscow apartment bombings, while the rest were asked to recall the Sept. 11 attacks in Washington and New York. Each group was then interviewed again six months later, at which time Nourkova's assistants suggested to the participants that they had seen a wounded animal in post-attack television coverage of the respective events. Nobody in the group asked about Sept. 11 incorporated the suggestion into their recollections. But 12.5 percent of the Moscow group not only agreed that they had seen these images - none of which had been broadcast on television - but provided precise and additional detail. Nourkova believes that the results show that traumatic memories are experimentally malleable and, in the view of traumatic events, people's memories can be contaminated with nearly anything. "After a certain traumatic experience, a person needs a visual image of it in his or her memory," Nourkova said. More importantly, Nourkova said, the findings hint at the idea that one can misrepresent a certain element of a traumatic event and make others believe that it is genuine. For example, people could be led to believe falsely that a certain group or organization was behind a violent attack, thereby stoking public opinion. TITLE: Residence Permits Out Next Week AUTHOR: By Robin Munro PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - People who want to obtain a temporary residence permit either as a Russian equivalent of the U.S. green card or as a step toward Russian citizenship will finally be able to do so after the May holidays, Viktor Kuznetsov, deputy head of the presidential department on citizenship, said Monday. The permits were provided for under the law on foreigners, which came into effect Nov. 1, but an Interior Ministry order on how to issue them has just been published, he said at a seminar organized by the United Nations High Commission on Refugees and the Moscow State Law Academy. "We have had difficulty implementing the citizenship law because there was a condition of first having a temporary residence permit," Kuznetsov said. Applications for citizenship have been suspended since the new, stricter citizenship law came into force last July 1. Once an application for a permit is made, officials have six months to approve it. The permit will allow the holder to live in Russia for up to three years. Holders of temporary residence permits must inform the authorities of any change of residence, submit to fingerprinting and register annually, but do not need work permits. Some permit holders have preferential rights to gain permanent residence or citizenship. These include refugees, those married to a Russian citizen for at least three years and those born in Russia. These people can gain permanent residence or citizenship in one year rather than three years or five years, respectively. TITLE: Russia and France To Up Military Cooperation AUTHOR: By Deborah Seward PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: MOSCOW - France and Russia have agreed to intensify military cooperation and joint weapons production to counter regional and global threats, the defense ministers of the two countries said. "The meetings took place in a climate of great cordiality, great confidence and a very practical spirit with a look toward the future," French Defense Minister Michele Alliot-Marie said Friday following talks with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov. Russia and France, both of which firmly opposed the U.S.-led war in Iraq, have intensified political and diplomatic cooperation in recent months. They now look set to deepen military ties as well. Upon greeting Alliot-Marie before their talks Friday, Ivanov said Franco-Russian relations constituted one "of the most important elements" of overall stability in Europe. He said the two countries had substantially activated their relations recently. Both said that their countries want to develop weaponry that could be sold to third countries and to hold joint training exercises to improve the ability of their armed forces to work together. Alliot-Marie stressed that France and Russia historically had strong military ties that could help the two countries develop better relations in the 21st century. "These relations are old and very strong," she said. She described current ties as "excellent," adding that they should be reinforced. Several of Alliot-Marie's senior aides have family ties to Russia. "Russian-French contacts are intensifying and are developing successfully," Ivanov said. Both ministers said they expected closer ties in defense manufacturing. France and Russia are currently working to develop a new generation MiG fighter plane. Ivanov indicated that other projects were in the works but declined to provide details. TITLE: Yabloko To Challenge Cabinet PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: MOSCOW - The liberal Yabloko party said Saturday that it would call for a no-confidence vote in the government of Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov because of its failure to safeguard citizens and its inability to carry out vital reforms. Party leader Grigory Yavlinsky likened the political calm in Russia following the tumultuous years under former President Boris Yeltsin to the situation of a frog sitting in a pot of water on a stove. At first it feels nice and warm and comfortable, "but the process will continue," he told reporters. "To change the government in time would mean a real chance to prevent a crisis," Yavlinsky said. Government spokespeople reacted calmly, even dismissively, to the announcement. Spokesperson Alexei Gorshkov chalked it up to electioneering before the December parliamentary vote. "Unfortunately, Yabloko is declaring its readiness to participate in drafting governmental programs and implement them only during the electoral race," he was quoted as saying by Interfax. Alexei Volin, the government's deputy head of staff, said that with just 18 representatives in the 450-member State Duma, "Yabloko can put any matter on the agenda, up to declaring war on America," Interfax reported. TITLE: IN BRIEF TEXT: Syria, Russia Plea DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) - Syria and Russia on Monday said efforts must be stepped up to end the "foreign occupation" of Iraq and safeguard Iraq's security and territorial integrity. The call was made during a meeting in the Syrian capital, Damascus, between Foreign Minister Farouk al-Sharaa and the visiting Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Sultanov. The official Syrian Arab News Agency said al-Sharaa and Sultanov agreed on the necessity to intensify efforts to end the presence of U.S. and British forces in Iraq. The officials also agreed to continue consultations and coordination between their countries, the agency reported. In neighboring Jordan, another visiting Russian official, Mideast envoy Andrei Vdovin, held talks with Jordan's minister of state of foreign affairs, Shaher Bak, on Iraq and the Palestinian-Israeli crisis, the official Petra news agency reported. Theater-Raid Appeals MOSCOW (AP) - The Moscow City Court rejected three appeals from relatives of victims of the October hostage raid at the Dubrovka theater on Monday, dealing the latest blow to efforts by family members seeking moral damages from the city government. Lawyer Igor Trunov had appealed on behalf of the plaintiffs, whose lawsuits were rejected by a district court on Jan. 23. Trunov, who represents more than 100 survivors and relatives of victims, said he expects that 21 more appeals will be rejected when they are considered Tuesday. "We weren't surprised," he said, adding that the plaintiffs plan to appeal to the presidium of the Moscow City Court and also ask the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg, France, to consider their cases along with the interests of relatives of five foreign victims - two Americans, an Austrian, a Ukrainian and a Kazakh. 1999 Bombs Suspect TBILISI, Georgia (AP) - Georgian security officials said Friday that the alleged organizer of a 1999 series of deadly apartment-house bombings in Russia could be hiding in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge. "The State Security Ministry of Georgia has information that several odious characters are in the Pankisi Gorge. It's possible that Achimez Gochiyayev, one of the organizers of bombings of residential buildings in Moscow and Volgodonsk, is among them," said ministry spokesperson Nika Laliashvili. Laliashvili said the security agencies of the two countries were cooperating to detain people in Georgia suspected of crimes in Russia. Arms-Control Treaty MOSCOW (AP) - The head of the Federation Council's international affairs committee said Friday that the upper house was ready to ratify a major arms-control treaty with the United States in the last 10 days of May. Mikhail Margelov said, after meeting with President Vladimir Putin, that he hoped the State Duma would approve the treaty next week, or immediately after the May 9 Victory Day holiday, Itar-Tass reported. The Federation Council can take up ratification only after the Duma's approval. Earlier this month, Margelov's counterpart in the Duma, Dmitry Rogozin, said that the Duma might vote on the treaty May 16. The Duma had been expected to open debate on the Treaty of Moscow last month, but it indefinitely postponed a ratification vote as a sign of protest against the then imminent U.S.-led attack on Iraq. TITLE: Cabinet Agrees To Further Tax Reductions AUTHOR: By Valeria Korchagina PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - The cabinet last week approved sweeping tax cuts for next year equivalent to 1.75 percent of GDP, in large part by lowering the country's value-added tax. A reduction in VAT from 20 percent to 18 percent is the centerpiece of the plans proposed by the Finance Ministry to reduce the tax burden on gross domestic product and boost growth. "The decision, in principle, has been taken," First Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Shatalov, the government's pointman on tax reform, was quoted by Reuters as saying after presenting his plan to the government. "My report received general support and the measures were approved." The Finance Ministry drafted its plan in response to Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov's demand that taxes be cut by 2 percent of GDP. The country's 2003 tax burden stands at 30.7 percent of GDP, Finance Ministry data shows. Shatalov said that over the next three years, the VAT cut will spur GDP growth of 0.5 percent to 1 percent, according to the government's Web site, www.government.ru. Further tax cuts are planned for 2005, when the government intends to lower the unified social tax, the payroll-tax employers pay. Reconfiguring the payroll-tax structure will effectively lower that tax by 5.7 percent, the Finance Ministry calculates, bringing budget losses of 194 billion rubles ($6.2 billion). The tax is the main source of funding for the medical and social-welfare systems. The Finance Ministry hopes to cut taxes again in 2006, rolling back VAT even further, to 16 percent. At the same time, it would do away with the preferential zero-percent VAT rate for goods like baby food that are considered socially important and the 10-percent VAT rate for industries like pharmaceuticals and mass media. Earlier this year, the government decided to scrap the sales tax, effective next year. The tax, now capped at 5 percent, is levied by the regions, and their budgets are expected to lose 60.6 billion rubles ($1.9 million) when the tax disappears. To compensate for budget-revenue losses, some energy-sector taxes will be increased. Gas export duties will be raised from 5 percent to 20 percent. Also, the basic mineral-extraction tax rate for the oil sector will be raised 5 percent to 357 rubles ($11.48) per metric ton from 340 rubles ($10.93) per ton. Gas excises, meanwhile, were cancelled by the cabinet on Wednesday. The loss of tax revenues will impact government spending targets, and ministries have been told to adjust their 2004 budgets accordingly. Peter Westin, chief economist at Aton brokerage, said the government was behaving responsibly by spacing out the VAT and unified social-tax cuts by a year, instead of making rash decisions at a time when the budget is blessed with unprecedentedly high oil revenues. Such patience, he said, will give the government a chance to revise some of its plans in light of the lower oil prices widely seen on the horizon. "I think it's a pretty good deal," Westin said. "It shows a cautious approach." TITLE: Restriction On Trade Stays Over Iraqi War AUTHOR: By Ken Guggenheim PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: WASHINGTON - Congressional resentment over Russia's opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq has stalled U.S. President George W. Bush's push to lift Cold War-era trade restrictions that have long been a source of tension between the countries. The administration wants congress to repeal the 1974 Jackson-Vanik trade restrictions, but lawmakers have little desire to consider them anytime soon. The dispute over Iraq has added to previous concerns about Russian trade policies. "Every time we take one step forward in congress, Russia takes two steps back," said Senator Charles Grassley, chairperson of the finance committee, which would consider lifting the restrictions. The trade restrictions were imposed to protest the Soviet Union's treatment of Jewish dissidents. They require the administration to send semiannual reports to congress on Russian emigration and human-rights policies for Russia to qualify for lower tariffs. Russia views Jackson-Vanik as outdated and a hindrance to improved economic and political ties. It is also an obstacle to admission to the World Trade Organization. Bush has urged congress to remove Russia from Jackson-Vanik requirements. A Commerce Department spokesperson, Trevor Francis, said Friday that position has not changed, despite differences about Iraq. A bill introduced this year by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairperson Richard Lugar would end the Jackson-Vanik restrictions and give Russia permanent normal trade relations. Democrats have offered a similar bill that would also include provisions to ensure that Russia makes progress on trade liberalization, religious freedom, human rights and democratic reforms. The administration had once hoped congress would act before a summit next month between Bush and President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. But congress is unlikely to begin debating the bills by then - or anytime soon. "We don't see this moving anywhere in the foreseeable future given everything that happened with Iraq," said a spokesperson for the Democrats on the finance committee. Russia, along with France and Germany, was one of the biggest obstacles to the Bush administration's failed efforts to win UN support for the war against Iraq. The poultry issue remains a bigger concern for many Democrats. Disputes over U.S. health and safety conditions have hurt U.S. poultry exports to Russia. That has contributed to a decline in prices of other meats, because freezers usually used for pork and beef have been stuffed with poultry. Though Russia and the United States have been working out their differences, some lawmakers will not be satisfied until the dispute is resolved. TITLE: Eurasian Economic Community To Push for WTO Entry AUTHOR: By Bagila Bukharbayeva PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: DUSHANBE, Tajikistan - The presidents of four former Soviet republics agreed Sunday to coordinate their efforts to join the World Trade Organization. "We are convinced that if we coordinate our work we will be able to ensure that our countries will join the WTO on good and optimal terms," President Vladimir Putin said after a meeting with the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Belarus. Kyrgyzstan is already a member of WTO, which sets rules on international trade, but the others are among 26 countries seeking membership. Russia has been trying to join the WTO for eight years. The five presidents gathered in the Tajik capital Dushanbe for a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Community, a Russia-dominated group set up in 2000 to restore lost trade ties after the Soviet collapse. Russia has 40 percent of the voting rights in the organization and covers 40 percent of its budget. The five presidents signed a document that outlines priority areas of economic cooperation through 2006. They agreed to work on the creation of a single customs regime, a transport union and coordinated migration policies. They also plan to discuss creating single energy and agricultural markets. Kyrgyz President Askar Akayev said that, if the plan is fulfilled by 2006, there will be "genuine" free trade between the countries, a move that many of these impoverished states believe is essential to boost their economies. The economic group also agreed to grant observer status to the former Soviet republic of Armenia. Last year, observer status was given to another two former Soviet republics, Ukraine and Moldova, in a bid to boost the group's international influence. Tajik President Emomali Rakhmonov said Sunday that the economic group was now ready to move forward with specific joint projects. The first will be the construction of the Songtuda power station southeast of Dushanbe, he said. If finished, the power station will make up Tajikistan's shortfall of electricity and will also be able to supply energy to southern Kazakh and Kyrgyz regions. The three-year project has an estimated price tag of $170 million. On Monday, the five presidents and Armenian President Robert Kocharyan were expected to discuss military ties within the Collective Security Treaty Organization. TITLE: Blueprint for UES Removal by 2000 Approved AUTHOR: By Alla Startseva PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - The government commission in charge of reforming the national electricity sector has approved a long-awaited reform plan on how to carve up Unified Energy Systems and sees 2006 as the year the monopoly will cease to exist. "We approved the plan without any serious disputes and will present it [to the cabinet by Wednesday]," Deputy Economic Development and Trade Minister Andrei Sharonov said after the commission, headed by Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Khristenko, met in the White House late Thursday. "We are oriented on 2006 as the year when all restructuring procedures will be completed and UES liquidated," Sharonov said. The plan sets the schedule for the legal and corporate steps needed to overhaul the industry by spinning off UES's generation and distribution arms, but keeping the transmission grid under state control. The commission approved the plan in its first meeting since President Vladimir Putin signed into law the raft of bills needed for the breakup. However, Sharonov said that, under the commission's plan, another 51 bills and documents must be passed or issued before the reform can be fully implemented. The list includes regulations for the electricity market in the transitional period, regulations for the wholesale market, a decree creating wholesale generation companies, a law on heating supply and selecting the board of directors for ATS, the wholesale-market administrator. He said the commission had considered and generally agreed with UES management's own plans for splitting up the company, known as the "5+5" plan, which has been criticized by minority shareholders. "Most of the time [we spent discussing 5+5] concerned how the two plans correspond to each other and whether or not we needed a document that describes the reform not only in legal terms, as the government's reform plan is, but simply in words," he said. Sharonov said it was decided that either the commission or the government should issue a document that describes the restructuring process until 2005 "in a concise form." This document, he said, should become "a bridge" between the two plans." "The implementation of 5+5 is impossible without the government's reform plan, and the government's plan is not complete without corporate actions by UES," Sharonov said. Although the commission agrees in principle with 5+5, "there is some kind of complication" because it is a corporate document, but it deals with wider issues concerning the sector, he said without elaborating. The commission is preparing its official response to 5+5, which it will give to the government directors on the UES board ahead of the May 23 meeting during which they will vote on it. Sharonov said that, by the end of May, the commission would consider the long-awaited decree on the exact makeup of generation companies, or gencos, that will consist of large plants currently run by UES. He said the decree was submitted to the government last year and the commission sees "no reasons to change it." UES's 5+5 plan will determine the sequence of creating the 10 gencos and all the technical details, while the government will determine which assets will belong to each genco. TITLE: CB: Banks Hid $5 Bln as 'PR' AUTHOR: By Victoria Lavrentieva PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - In a rare affront to the sector he oversees, Central Bank Chairperson Sergei Ignatyev lashed out at the banking industry last week for spiriting offshore the ruble equivalent of $5 billion in 2002 under the guise of paying for "marketing services." Russian banks say that they are suffering from lower margins and declining interest rates, but Ignatyev said their profits are plenty, just hidden through tax-avoidance loopholes or outright money laundering. The central banker told the 14th annual conference of the Association of Russian Banks that the $5-billion figure was absurd, given the fact that Russia's entire advertising and PR market was estimated at just $2 billion last year. This can only mean, he said, "that either banks' management want to legalize criminal money or transfer money abroad or avoid taxes." In reality, bankers and industry watchers say, all three are true, because many banks continue to find creative ways of hiding their profits, but also to meet the demand of their clients - big Russian corporations. Schemes such as "marketing-service contracts," which are exempt from the 24-percent profit tax, are the most popular and allow banks to send money offshore through a myriad of front companies. "Until recently, many banks preferred to keep their profits in the shadows and they used different schemes to send their money offshore," said Vadim Adlerberg, head of treasury at Stroikreditbank. "But the situation is improving as banks become more transparent, and I think we will see more showing real profits this year," he said. Ignatyev said that the average return on capital for Russia's 100 biggest banks is currently about 18 percent. But while some banks in the top 100 show profits greater than the average, "at least eight" have never officially done better than 3 percent. The Central Bank, he said, believes there were several possible reasons for the discrepancy: bad management, artificially inflating capital or artificially reducing profits to avoid paying tax. Analysts said there were other reasons in addition to the ones singled out by Ignatyev, such as having a bad loan portfolio. Andrei Ivanov, banking analyst at Troika Dialog, said the profitability of a bank should be around 25 percent if it is developing normally. At the same time, Richard Hainsworth, banking analyst with Renaissance Capital, said that the Central Bank's opinion usually differs from the banks' own estimates. "It is very hard to measure the profitability of banks in Russia because most of them are not transparent," said Hainsworth, who also heads RusRating, which rates banks. "It is hard to say which portion of their capital is real." "I don't think it makes any sense to measure banks' performance based on return on equity, since it changes every day and doesn't really mean much in Russia," Stroikreditbank's Adlerberg said. "Several years ago we thought that an 18-percent return was nothing, while today we are happy with 12 percent." TITLE: State Establishes Tighter Controls Over Aeroflot AUTHOR: By Lyuba Pronina PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - The state boosted its presence on Aeroflot's board Saturday through support from minority shareholders, but it has yet to identify who will take its helm. The government emerged from the annual shareholder meeting with eight seats on the 11-member board, one seat more than it had previously. One of those state seats went to Aeroflot's chief financial officer, Alexander Zurabov, whom Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov appointed as his pro bono aviation adviser earlier this year. After being denied a seat board twice at previous shareholder meetings, Zurabov is now widely seen as the front-runner to chair the new board when elections are held in May. Both candidates that received nominations from Aeroflot employees, CEO Valery Okulov and his first deputy, Vladimir Antonov, also won seats on the board. After the state's 51-percent stake, the next largest slice of the flagship carrier was held by Chukotka Governor Roman Abramovich's Millhouse Capital U.K. Ltd. until last month, when Millhouse sold its 26 percent to National Reserve Bank. NRB said Saturday that it had thrown its support behind government representatives and had no immediate plans to call for an extraordinary shareholders meeting, through which it could push to nominate its own candidates for the board. NRB acquired its stake too close to the meeting to nominate candidates for Saturday's election. Investment fund NCH Advisers, another minority shareholder, with just over 5 percent, won a seat, giving the airline an independent director in the person of Grigory Finger, executive director at the U.S. group's Moscow office. NCH has long been an Aeroflot shareholder, but this is the first time it has sought representation. The minority shareholder did so, Finger said, because it believed that it was important to have someone speaking for minority interests on the state-dominated board. "I will be like an island of free economy on the board," Finger said on the sidelines of Saturday's meeting. Besides its Aeroflot stake, NRB owns 41 percent of Ilyushin Finance, an aircraft-leasing company that recently won a court case forcing a resistant Aeroflot to lease six Il-96-300 long-haul aircrafts. Regardless of that strain on relations, Okulov said that relations with NRB were still positive. "There is no hostility toward them," he said. There have been talks between Aeroflot and NRB president Alexander Lebedev on launching joint projects, Okulov said, like a shuttle flight between Kaliningrad and Moscow and VIP service between Moscow and St. Petersburg. When the new board meets for the first time in May, it will select a chairperson to replace Transportation Minister Sergei Frank, who has said that he is stepping down after serving in the position for three years. Along with Zurabov, the other most likely successor to Frank is First Deputy Transportation Minister Alexander Neradko, a source close to the board has said. Neradko also heads the State Civil Aviation Service. Zurabov said in an interview earlier this year that if elected chairperson of Aeroflot's board, he would resign his position as the company's chief financial officer. Zurabov is credited by many analysts as having steered Aeroflot into profitability over the last three years, after the company had been through a decade of decline. While other airlines struggle with a global downturn in the travel industry, Aeroflot last year raked in a profit of $101.9 million under Russian accounting standards. Yet amid such success, Aeroflot's financial department has been buffeted by an ongoing stand-off between Okulov and Zurabov. Okulov last month stripped Zurabov of his financial signature, while financial director Nikolai Kuznetsov, associated with Zurabov, resigned under rumors of pressure. Okulov on Saturday refused to address this issue, nor did he wish to comment on what kind of working relationship he would have with Zurabov if the latter were to be named board chairperson. TITLE: Court Strikes Labor Leader at Metals Giant from Election AUTHOR: By Simon Ostrovsky PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - A Norilsk court on Monday barred a labor leader at the city's main employer, Norilsk Nickel, from participating in Sunday's run-off for mayor, citing campaign violations. Vyacheslav Melnikov, chairperson of the federation of Norilsk Nickel unions, won the first round Wednesday with 47 percent of the vote, 15 percent more than his main opponent, city council Chairperson Sergei Shmakov, but less than the 50-percent threshold needed to avoid a run-off. Nearly 17 percent of the electorate voted against all candidates. Political observers and Norilsk Nickel trackers called the court's decision a political move influenced by the metal giant, which wants to retain a stranglehold on power in the region through Shmakov, one of its former managers. But Shmakov himself dropped out of the race late Monday after the city's election committee decided to replace Melnikov with the head of the supply department of Norilsk Nickel's polar division, Leonid Frayman, who finished third in the first round of voting with less than 3 percent. Shmakov said voters had essentially been left without a choice, which could divide the city. "I would like to win in an honest, open and fair competition," Interfax quoted him as saying. "I don't consider myself to have the right to be appointed without considering the democratic will of the people of Norilsk." A spokesperson for Norilsk Nickel, which employs more than a quarter of the city's 230,000 people, denied the company was behind the developments, saying "we don't deal with elections." Melnikov built his electoral platform around a labor dispute with Norilsk Nickel management in which he threatened a general strike if workers' demands for higher wages and more vacation time were not met. Ironically, the threat was good for both Melnikov and the company, as supply insecurity on the market caused metals prices to skyrocket along with Melnikov's popularity. The case against Melnikov was brought by the city Prosecutor's Office, which accused him of improper campaign financing and violating rules related to television appearances by candidates, Interfax reported. The court said it would release details of its ruling Wednesday. "We think this is being done so that we don't have time to contest the decision," Interfax quoted Andrei Barsky, Melnikov's spokesperson, as saying. Federal election laws prohibit courts from striking candidates off a ballot within five days of an election, meaning that Monday was the last day Melnikov could have been barred from running. "When a leading candidate is taken off the ballot, we have to think of political reasons, no matter what the explanation," said Nikolai Petrov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Foundation in Moscow. "This is a huge surprise, nobody was even talking about this," said an analyst who tracks Norilsk Nickel for a leading Moscow investment bank. "In essence, Norilsk was losing an election in its own capital." Norilsk's current mayor, Oleg Budargin, in January was elected governor of the neighboring Taimyr autonomous district, which, like Norilsk, is located within the massive Krasnoyarsk region. Budargin replaced former Norilsk Nickel General Director Nikolai Khloponin, who became governor of Krasnoyarsk last year after the former governor, ex-general and one-time presidential candidate Alexander Lebed, died in a helicopter crash exactly one year ago on Monday. "Monday's ruling looks like it was made in favor of the ruling status quo of both Krasnoyarsk and Taimyr, which have close ties with Norilsk Nickel," Petrov said. "More often than not, we are seeing elections being decided in offices and court rooms instead of at the ballot box," he added. TITLE: LUKoil Confirms Its Position as World No.2 AUTHOR: By Valeria Korchagina PUBLISHER: Staff Writer TEXT: MOSCOW - LUKoil said Monday its proven hydrocarbon reserves have grown 17 percent since Jan. 1, 2002 to 19.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, keeping it the world's second-largest by reserves after ExxonMobil. The new figure represents 19.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) proven under the standards of the Society of Petroleum Engineers as of Jan. 1, plus another 400 million boe that the company has acquired since, putting it just ahead of the supermajor-to-be YukosSibneft. Most of the growth came from new reserves of natural gas. LUKoil said that its gas reserves are up 82 percent and oil reserves 5 percent since the beginning of 2002. At current levels, LUKoil can produce at its current rate of 570 million barrels a year for nearly 30 years. Despite its huge inventory, however, LUKoil is only the No. 10 oil and gas producer in the world - No. 11 if Gazprom is included. "LUKoil does not need that much reserves," said Steven Dashevsky, oil analyst at investment bank Aton. "It should be looking to boost production, particularly given the fact that its competitors in Western Siberia - Yukos and Sibneft - are producing 10 percent to 15 percent more every year, while LUKoil adds 1, 2 or 3 percent." In the first three months of the year, Sibneft and Yukos increased production 26 percent and 22 percent, respectively, according to Energy Ministry statistics. Yukos spokesperson Hugo Erikssen said LUKoil's figures should force the West to re-evaluate Russia's oil and gas reserves, which are still technically considered a state secret. "LUKoil's new figures indicate that overall perception of Russia's reserves in the West is considerably lower than the true state of affairs. Now, it appears the process of re-evaluation has started," he said. Leonid Mirzoyan, oil and gas analyst at Deutsche Bank, said that LUKoil's decision to increase proportion of in its total reserves was strategically sound in the long term, particularly if independent producers are finally allowed to edge in on Gazprom's monopoly. LUKoil's figures suggest that gas grew from 11 percent to 21 percent of LUKoil's total reserves. LUKoil Vice President Yury Storozhev told a gas conference in Moscow on Monday that the company plans to invest $19 billion into its gas and petrochemical divisions through 2030, Interfax reported. LUKoil said it expects to add a further 2.9 trillion cubic meters of gas, equal to 17 million boe, to its reserves by 2020. Storozhev said that by 2020, LUKoil is planning to produce 11.2 billion cubic meters of gas a year. By 2030, that figure should grow to 95 billion cubic meters, equal to about 16 percent of Russia's total expected gas production this year, he said. "It is always tomorrow with LUKoil. But when does tomorrow start?" said Stephen O'Sullivan, head of research at United Financial Group. "LUKoil's competitors also have extremely rosy outlooks, but they manage to deliver more impressive results now," he said. TITLE: RSPP Reform: More Bang for Your Buck? TEXT: THE Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, or RSPP, has put forward an extremely liberal proposal: To radically cut the number of ministries and government agencies. Our government is truly amazing, when you stop to think about it. Take Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Gordeyev, who handles agriculture policy. In his work to better the lives of Russia's peasants, Gordeyev lobbied hard for so-called interventions on the grain market. As it happened, the money was allocated in November, when the peasants had already sold everything to major dealers. As a result of Gordeyev's farm policy, the government spent taxpayer money to boost the profits of major grain dealers. Then there's Ilya Klebanov, head of the Industry, Science and Technology Ministry, best known for pushing tariffs to protect Russian industry. The ministry maintains, for instance, that in order to help the oligarchs who bought up Russia's automobile plants, the government should make average citizens pay more for used foreign cars. It's unclear what led Klebanov to believe that oligarchs are the neediest group in Russian society. Probably the same thing that gave Gordeyev the brilliant idea of lending a helping hand to big agribusiness. Igor Kostikov, head of the Federal Securities Commission, mercilessly prosecutes insider-trading on the stock market - how many firms have had their licenses yanked by the FSC already! How wonderful that the flourishing St. Petersburg-based company AVK has not been subjected to a probe. Apparently, Kostikov already knows that everything at AVK is in order. After all, he was co-owner of the company before his appointment to the FSC. Yevgeny Nazdratenko is head of the State Fisheries Committee. He has been questioned in connection with his committee's decision to hand out scientific-fishing quotas for nothing. Among the other players involved in this little scandal is Vitaly Artyukhov, head of the Natural Resources Ministry. It turns out that scientific-fishing quotas cannot be granted without his approval. Finally, there's Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov, who recently received a proposal from Alfa Group to take over management of state-owned Sheremetyevo Airport. In this situation, you would think that an honest bureaucrat would have thrown the letter in the trash, or told Alfa Group: "Sorry, we don't lease public property to oligarchs without a tender." Instead, Kasyanov ordered the Economic Development and Trade, Transportation and Property ministries to review the proposal and report back as soon as possible. Before they get back to him on pension and tax reform, no doubt. Don't think that I'm blaming everything on the bureaucrats alone. It takes two to tango: Corrupt decisions don't happen without a government official on one side and an oligarch on the other. The RSPP is a kind of oligarchs' senate, so their proposal to trim the government is not just some strategic-arms-limitation treaty. We need to limit arms and prune the bureaucracy, of course. I'm all for it. I'm just trying to figure out why the oligarchs came up with such an altruistic idea. As I puzzled over this question, a seditious thought came to mind. What if the bureaucracy has become so bloated that it's getting in the way of corrupt policy decisions? Word is that bribes in the recent fish-quota scandal totaled as much as $10 million because so many state agencies were involved. It seems reasonable to assume that if there are fewer ministries, the oligarchs will spend less on bribes and get more bang for their buck. Yulia Latynina is host of "Yest Mneniye" ("Some Might Say") on TVS. TITLE: Will Iraq Turn Into OPEC's Nemesis? AUTHOR: By Christopher Weafer TEXT: OPEC member countries are now involved in discussions with a view to reducing the current high production levels that, if allowed to persist, threaten a sharp fall in the oil price over the summer months. On the face of it, it's easy to simply agree to stop cheating on official production quotas to restore supply-demand equilibrium to the market. However, as always with the oil market, it is not that simple and any decision will be based more on political considerations than on economics. At stake is OPEC's future relationship with its major customers (particularly the United States), the balance of power within OPEC itself, and the possible reintegration of Iraq into the quota system. In all likelihood, the member countries will issue a vaguely worded statement of intent to comply with the existing quota regime but with a "get out clause" based, for example, on a need for supply to reflect changing demand. For Russia, the stakes are equally high. Russia has lived very handsomely on the back of OPEC for the past four years, earning some $70 billion more in oil and gas exports than it did in the previous four-year period. If the OPEC-centered price and control structure remains in place, by 2010 Russia's combined corporate cash flows and budget revenues will probably be close to $100 billion annually - assuming that planned production growth and pipeline capacity increases take place. However, the time is fast approaching when Russia's "free ride" may come to an end and - at a minimum - Russia may have to choose between lending political support to the OPEC structure, which will help ensure a high level of future export revenues, or to side with the consumer countries in exchange for broader economic benefits elsewhere. OPEC countries are currently supplying about 3 million barrels per day (bpd) in excess of underlying demand. That was a deliberate decision, forced by the Saudi-led moderate faction, in order to keep the market well-supplied in case of a major supply disruption due to war - which could have caused a sharp upward price spike with the attendant risk of a political backlash from the United States and EU. The fact that there has been no such disruption and that U.S. army engineers are now pushing very hard to restore Iraqi exports places OPEC at a critical crossroads. Add to that the fact that last year's surplus production went into building global strategic supplies to historic highs and Thursday's meeting has all the ingredients of being a historic turning point for OPEC. If member countries cut current production too aggressively, then the oil price will stay above the targeted price average and this will force the United States to accelerate the rehabilitation and extension of Iraqi production while probably keeping Iraq outside the quota system. That could result, in two to four years, in the destruction of OPEC's central role in the global oil market. On the other hand, keeping the present level of over-production in place would suit the consumer countries but could expose the fragile political unity within OPEC and ultimately set it on a course either for radical change or self-destruction. This is especially so given that most OPEC countries are predominantly Islamic and, right now, none of those regimes wants to risk criticism for being openly too pro-Western. While member countries clearly have a huge incentive to avoid risking either potentially destructive event, it is by no means certain that they will be able to. If normal oil-demand growth resumes, then by 2010 this residual demand will have increased to 70 million bpd (partly due to an expected decline in North American and North Sea production rates) and even if Russia is exporting 7 million bpd by then, OPEC countries will see demand for their oil rise to about 50 million bpd. That will allow OPEC a significantly more powerful position than it occupies even today. And that is the main reason why OPEC must now tread very carefully. Its next moves could be the most decisive in determining whether it survives and, if so, in what form. When you cut away all the hype, OPEC, an illegal cartel, owes its existence to the fact that it has, in the past, been a reliable partner to Western energy consuming countries. Despite the normal price volatility - mainly influenced by the level of cheating by the more aggressive smaller OPEC countries - OPEC has been able to guarantee stability of oil supplies within the framework of an agreed long-term average oil price. Both certainty of supply and price are critically important for Western economies that generally remain very vulnerable to both the availability and price of energy. If the United States decides that OPEC is either no longer willing or able to continue its role as guarantor of supply at a reasonable price, then it now finds itself with the perfect weapon with which to ensure the destruction of the cartel: Iraq. Iraq's current reserve base, which is certainly underestimated due to the lack of modern exploration equipment in the past 20 years, could easily support production of about 6 million bpd. All it would require is cash and know how, both of which the United States has in abundance. Anybody who thinks that developments will have to wait for UN permission and other legal niceties has only to look at what a determined United States can and has done recently when its national interests are at stake. Iraqi oil could be a very significant part of the world supply within two or three years if the moderate OPEC countries, such as Saudi Arabia, bow to the pressure from smaller producers including Nigeria, Algeria and Venezuela to slash production now. That would send a clear signal to Washington that the reliable cooperation that has lasted for the past 20 years is now over. Normally, Russia attends OPEC meetings as a detached observer - this time, however, the stakes are much higher. Christopher Weafer, chief strategist at Alfa Bank, contributed this comment to The St. Petersburg Times. TITLE: Lowering Tax Barriers for Foreign Workers AUTHOR: By Ruslan Vasutin and Marat Altynbayev TEXT: FOLLOWING the adoption of the Chapter 23 Individual Tax section of the Tax Code, which became effective on Jan. 1, 2001, the applicable tax rate for foreigners working in Russia can vary significantly. The code establishes two different rates - a 13-percent rate for those considered to be Russian "tax resident," as a result of being physically present in Russia for 183 days or more in a calendar year (days of arrival in Russia are not counted) and a 30-percent rate for those present less than 183 days. This, however, begs the question: Which rate applies for the period prior to satisfying the 183-day tax-residence test? This issue has arisen frequently for foreign nationals arriving in Russia to work but, in practice, the same issue arises with each new calendar year for all persons working in Russia, be they Russian or foreign. In addition to new arrivals, the tax-rate issue has arisen in the context of various "staff-leasing" schemes involving the secondment of personnel by staffing firms and what tax charge they should pass on to the company receiving the seconded employee. Methodological recommendations issued by the Tax Ministry in November 2000 clarified this issue, to some extent, by providing that a foreign national would be presumed resident from the outset of arrival in Russia if their employment contract or visa provides for their stay in Russia beyond 183 days in the calendar year. Russian nationals are presumed tax resident from the outset, but may subsequently become nonresident if not meeting the days test. Notwithstanding this clarification, there appears to be a distinction between how various regions - the Moscow and the Northwest regions, for example - address the issue of when tax residence commences. The Moscow Division of the Tax Ministry, in a letter issued on October 23, 2002, confirmed that foreign citizens employed in Russia for a period exceeding 183 days in a calendar year are Russian tax resident from the start of the tax period. However, the Leningrad Oblast Tax Ministry Division, in a later letter in 2003, which, ironically, is substantially based on the earlier Moscow Division letter, suggests that a foreign national placed on a local payroll is liable to the 30-percent rate until such time as the 183-day residence requirement is met. Only from that point will the 13-percent rate apply, although the letter acknowledges the possibility of a reassessment and set-off of the prior 30-percent amount against future amounts owing. The overly conservative approach of the Leningrad Oblast tax authorities, in insisting on an initial 30-percent rate with only retroactive application of the 13-percent rate for qualifying individuals, can be challenged. Not only does it appear to conflict with the methodological recommendations of the Tax Ministry and the Moscow Division's position, but also, the very fact of an absence of unanimity of opinion on the matter allows for the application of the Tax Code "tie breaker" provision that all inherent doubts and contradictions be interpreted in the taxpayer's favor. Accordingly, application of the 30-percent tax rate on foreigners who qualify for Russian tax residence in any year is disputable. A 13-percent rate from the outset of employment can be supported for foreign nationals who will be Russian tax resident. However, it is recommended that this position be supported by ensuring that the employment contract, visa and other documents related to the expatriates' presence in Russia substantiate their likely presence in Russia for a period which qualifies them as Russian tax resident in the year. Ruslan Vasutin is a senior manager and Marat Altynbayev is an experienced consultant at Ernst & Young, St. Petersburg. TITLE: Foreign-Relations Success Is Just Blind Luck AUTHOR: By Sergei Karaganov TEXT: THE Iraqi crisis is not over. Ahead lie unexpected twists and turns, and unpleasant surprises for many of the parties involved. However, in essence, it has ended in victory for the military force and behind-the-scenes diplomacy of the United States, together with Britain and their allies. We could continue, ad infinitum, the unproductive discussions about why the apparently organized Iraqi defense crumbled so soon, or the completely futile debates about why we dislike the United States and its actions in Iraq. But it makes much more sense to attempt to assess the new circumstances in which Russia finds itself, and to look at how Russian diplomacy has performed under these new conditions. Sept. 11, 2001, did not give birth to a new reality, but simply opened people's eyes to the existing state of affairs. The Iraqi crisis, likewise, has not begotten a new reality, but now it will be harder to ignore things that we chose to ignore previously. The epoch of national-liberation movements and revolutions, and the socialist experiments between the 1940s and 1990s, gave rise to a vast number of states that demonstrated their inability to provide an adequate level of development and a decent standard of living for the majority of their people. The absence of development or, worse, widespread corruption, ineffective despotic regimes beset by demographic and religious problems - these are a growing threat not only for the states themselves and their populations, but also for the rest of mankind. It is precisely the regions where these states are clustered that are the major sources of instability, disease and terrorism. And they constitute the most serious danger in terms of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, drug-trafficking, etc. This area encompasses a large part of Africa, Central Asia and the Middle East, possibly including some of the states of the former Soviet Union. Russia is perched on the edge of this area. The United States has decided proactively to impose order and modernization (as it understands it) in a significant portion of this area - in the Far East, Middle East and Central Asia - while, at the same time, strengthening its own position in those places. Africa is deemed less important and so has been left alone for the time being. The first attempt to enforce order, from Washington's perspective, has been a complete success, despite the questionable legitimacy and the hamfisted propaganda campaign. Now it will no doubt undertake further such attempts, although not necessarily by resorting to direct military intervention. After the success in Iraq, just the threat of intervention should prove sufficient in the majority of cases. The United States could get bogged down, but it could also get carried away and start acting with considerably less ceremony, including with regard to Russia's direct interests. The United Nations Security Council can no longer operate purely on the basis of its 1945 mandate. And the organization itself, despite its usefulness, is becoming less effective while growing almost fourfold - in large part due to the influx of the aforementioned states. Turning to Russia's performance, I won't beat around the bush: It was not great, but thank God, we managed to avoid disaster. First, our intelligence services misled us - or we deluded ourselves - about Iraq's ability and readiness to resist attack. Second, Russia's policy did not give the impression of being very well coordinated. At times we were clearly improvising and on occasions were clearly acting at cross-purposes. Third, we lacked a clear strategic objective: It was not clear whether we wanted to ensure that international law was observed, save the UN Security Council, befriend European states and play them off against the United States, or to remain on good terms with America. Any of these objectives could be justified as part of an overarching strategy. But there was no strategy and the absence of a strategy is not unique to this crisis - it is true of our foreign policy as a whole. Fourth, out of slovenliness, we simply did not look after our economic interests in Iraq. And this is not about selling out our principles, but about the kind of image we want to project to the world: that of a 19th-century state, playing the vainglorious geopolitical games that kings used to play, or that of a 21st-century state, concerned about upholding its real interests. Less important interests, including economic ones, can be sacrificed to more important ones. But I, for one, did not notice any attempt to prioritize interests. Moreover, government agencies, above all the Economic Development and Trade Ministry, which was charged (as far as one can tell) with defending Russia's economic interests in Iraq, simply ignored its responsibilities - there is no doubt about that. And, finally, one of our policy objectives has been, and remains, erroneous. It is counterproductive at the UN - even for tactical purposes - to attempt to play against its most powerful member. The UN ship is only barely afloat. It needs to be saved as a matter of urgency, but the crew is engaged in historical exercises. The ship needs to be rapidly repaired and modernized, and this should be done together with those with whom we can sail on. Unless the UN is reformed forthwith, it will soon go the way of NATO or, worse still, the OSCE. However, in spite of the errors, we have scraped through this time - largely thanks to the personal diplomacy of Presidents Vladimir Putin and George W. Bush, and the mission of former Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov to Iraq to urge Saddam Hussein to step down and save his country. However, we have scraped through not as a result of systematic and coherent actions, but, rather, thanks to a series of unconnected steps that proved to be successful. In an increasingly complex and hazardous world, such an approach sooner or later will doom us to failure and, at the very least, to squandering potential advantages. Sergei Karaganov is chairperson of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy. This comment first appeared in Moskovskiye Novosti. TITLE: Differing Opinions Over Lenin's Memory TEXT: TRADITIONALLY, April is the month that we remember Vladimir Lenin. In Soviet times, however, April was not so much the month of Lenin's birthday as it was the time of the communist subbotnik. For those who never lived in the Soviet Union, let me explain: At the height of the Civil War, a group of revolutionary workers went to work on their day off and mended a few steam-engines for free. Lenin, in an article, called it an act of "great initiative" and, while he was about it (in the same article), he expounded his interpretation of Karl Marx's sociological theory. After Lenin's death, his thoughts were immortalized in Soviet philosophy textbooks. As for working for free on Saturdays, that was soon forgotten when Stalin introduced labor camps that provided the country with free labor all year round. After Stalin's death, life became less brutal and the surviving victims of political repression were allowed to return home. However, people started to notice that, with the departure of Stalin's totalitarian regime, communal services ceased to function properly. Under Stalin, courtyard sweepers spied on residents, but at least they cleaned as well. Now, they don't do anything. Anyway, suddenly the Soviet authorities remembered the "great initiative." And here, you have to acknowledge that the Bolshevik leader's birthday was well-timed: After the snow melts, the streets of the cities are covered in filth, and the windows with a thick layer of soot. In short, cities still need a good spring cleaning. It is instructive that although Lenin's birthday has not been properly celebrated for some time, the subbotniki, which were tied to his birthday, have survived. Democratic reforms killed off what was left of our communal services. And so, once a year, we have to rise ourselves to do battle with garbage and the general filth. Of course, these days, the whole activity has become decentralized - different neighborhoods and organizations conduct subbotniki at different times - and some not at all. What is Lenin's name associated with today besides cleaning the streets and putting out the trash? According to a survey conducted by Public Opinion Foundation, the name still means a great deal to the majority of us. Sixty three percent of Russians still remember his date of birth (51 percent among the younger generation). Mention of Lenin's name evokes positive emotions among 16 percent of those polled ("something bright," "memories of youth," etc.). Fourteen percent associate the name with revolution, uprising and strikes; while 11 percent are reminded of the Communist Party, the Komsomol, and pioneers' red neck ties. Nine percent are reminded nostalgically of "free education and health care," and "the good life." And the same number are reminded of Soviet-era slogans ("All Power to the Soviets," "Study and More Study" etc.). Only five percent of the population has negative associations with the word Lenin, such as poverty, hunger, and lines. This is incredible considering that, for the past decade, many newspapers - and in particular, the main television channels - have been telling us regularly what an evil man the Bolshevik leader was. Comparing the recent poll with those from five to seven years ago, one thing is clear: Despite the negative campaign (or perhaps because of it), Lenin's rating has been on the rise. This goes for overall evaluations of the Soviet past as well. However, it would be naive to conclude from this that Russians are in a hurry to return to life in the Soviet Union. In fact, more likely the opposite is true: The Soviet Union has irretrievably entered the annals of history, and for this reason people are increasingly able to make an unbiased assessment of the experience. In this situation, full-frontal assaults on Bolshevism lose their effectiveness. Throughout the 1990s, Soviet history was portrayed as one huge nightmare. However, neo-liberal culture has proved incapable of creating its own role models and inspiring images. Soviet history was a tragedy but not a catastrophe, and that is why it continues to be appealing. Again and again, we return to our Soviet past: Film audiences' tastes were formed on a diet of Soviet films; Soviet children's books gave us our penchant for reading. However, we should not overestimate the depth of Russians' historical awareness today. Only 5 percent of respondents associate Lenin's name with the history of the country and social changes. Four percent associate his name with the idea of communism, 3 percent with subbotniki, and only 2 percent with Lenin's mausoleum. In the final analysis, the poll only established the emotions and associations evoked by Lenin's name, not people's opinion of him. It is still early days for popular opinion in this country. If, as a society, we were consistently able to formulate a clear position and defend it, then we would be living in a very different country today. Boris Kagarlitsky is director of the Institute of Globalization Studies. TITLE: Chris Floyd's Global Eye TEXT: Open Book Some cynics claim that U.S. President George W. Bush and his closest advisors - whom cynics cynically refer to as "bloodthirsty corporate pimps" - are just a bunch of vicious, shifty liars. But this column takes enormous umbrage at the heaping of such unsupported calumny upon the good names of these great leaders. They have been maligned, slandered, falsely accused. For when it comes to their plans for world conquest, these so-called "pimps" are as honest as the day is long. As we all know, the rape of Iraq (or as future historians will doubtless call it, "The Dawn of the Shiite Empire") was planned openly several years ago by a hard-right agitprop cell led by Dick Cheney and Don Rumsfeld. Now it turns out that the recent big-monkey chest-beating aimed at Syria - threats of sanctions, "surgical" strikes, and "regime change" - was also carefully planned, by many of the same people, long before the Bush Regime seized power. As we've often reported here, in September 2000 the Cheney-Rumsfeld outfit, Project for the New American Century, proudly published their blueprint for the direct imposition of U.S. "forward bases" throughout Central Asia and the Middle East. They even foresaw the need for what they called a "Pearl Harbor-type event" to galvanize the American public into supporting their ambitious program. Their reasons for this program were also stated quite openly: to ensure U.S. political and economic domination of the world, while strangling any potential "rival" or any viable alternative to the rapacious crony capitalism favored by the PNAC extremists. This dominance would be enforced by the ever-present threat - and frequent application - of violence. (A tactic known elsewhere as "terrorism.") PNAC was also very honest about the role of Iraq in this crusade for empire, stating plainly that the need for a U.S. military presence in the area "superseded" the "issue of the regime of Saddam Hussein." There was no sanctimonious posturing about "liberation," weapons of mass destruction or terrorist connections. To dominate the oil wealth centered in that region - and, hence, the economic/political development of the world in the coming decades - they needed a military presence in Iraq; it's as simple as that. And now they've got it. Again, it's all quite open - for anyone who cares to look. Last week, the Pentagon announced that it "expects" (i.e., "demands") to have "long-term access" to at least four major military bases in Iraq, The New York Times reports. (Rumsfeld - or "Shifty" as cynics like to call him - later issued a weasel-worded non-denial denial.) Although the hundreds of thousands of armed and angry Shiite Muslims currently clamoring for an Islamic state in Bush's new satrapy may yet cause a spot of bother for the sahibs, for now the generals and arms dealers installed as Iraq's new rulers believe they will still be sitting pretty in Fort Pretzel and Carlyle Air Base throughout the "new American century." This was, after all, the purpose of the recent slaughter - as Cheney and Rumsfeld told us plainly years ago. A few months before PNAC's prophetic 2000 report, an allied group with an overlapping membership published a similar document outlining steps to be taken against Syria: first "tightening the screws" with denunciations and economic sanctions, then escalating to military action, as Jim Lobe of Inter-Press Agency reports. The architects of this document included Elliot Abrams, the convicted perjurer now running Bush's Middle East policy; Douglas Feith, one of Shifty's top aides; Paula Dobriansky, undersecretary to Colin Powell, and influential Pentagon advisors such as David Wurmser, Michael Leeden and everyone's sweetheart, Richard "Influence-Peddler" Perle. The report sprang largely from the loins of the United States Committee for a Free Lebanon, a curious grouping of right-wing American Christians, right-wing American Jews, and a sprinkling of Lebanese exiles. They object - rightly - to the fact that Syria has maintained "long-term access to major military bases" in Lebanon, using this minatory presence to exercise undue sway over Lebanon's political and economic life. Of course, some cynics would say that this situation is remarkably akin to Israel's own 18-year occupation of, er, Lebanon, or the United States' decades-long - and still-continuing-military presence in Japan, Korea, Germany, Italy, Great Britain, Panama, etc. But you know what cynics are like. The USCFL also provides highly insightful and very nearly literate analyses of vital regional issues, such as its seminal paper, "Even Arabs Don't Like Arabs." But the mindset of the group - whose members now stalk the corridors of power in Imperial Washington - is perhaps best displayed in its thoughtful 2001 treatise, "A Petition Demanding War Against Governments That Sponsor Terrorism" (Except, of course, for governments who enforce their will by the ever-present threat and use of violence - i.e. terrorism - but are run by nice white men educated at Yale and Oxford.) Here, the proto-Bushist group demands that six "rogue nations" - Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran, Libya and Sudan - "turn over their governments to the United States" on pain of massive military response. The United States will then "occupy these territories until proper governments" - ones that allow "long-term access" to major military bases, no doubt - can be established." And just how massive should that threatened U.S. military response be? The USCFL is, as always, admirably - and brutally - forthright: "America must set a clear example-identical to that of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If you tread on me, I will wipe you off the face of the earth." Is this what the Bushists are really talking about in their fear-mongering diatribes about seeing "terrorism's smoking gun in a mushroom cloud"? For annotational references, see the "Opinion" section at www.sptimesrussia.com TITLE: Sun and Spirits in the South of Hungary AUTHOR: By James Jeffrey PUBLISHER: Special to The St. Petersburg Times TEXT: Yes, there is a Hungary beyond Budapest. Hop on a train and plunge south through immense fields of sunflowers and poppies, past countless deer, storks and swollen pheasants. By the time you reach gently rolling hills a couple of hours later, you're almost there. As the recorded English-language announcement will say in its entertainingly lazy drawl: "The next stop is Pecs. As you get off the train, please press the green button." Pecs - pronounced as something between Pairch and Paych - is a small, sun-drenched, wine-soaked university city snuggled in the bosom of the Mescek Hills in southern Transdanubia, about 200 kilometers from Budapest. The Mecsek very obligingly shield Pecs from cold, northern winds, something the ancient Romans noted when establishing Pecs - formerly Sopianae - here as the capital of the province of Pannonia. These days, the name Sopianae lives on ignominiously as a brand of cigarettes, while Pannonia has morphed into Pannon Volan, the local bus line. The Magyars happily settled late in the ninth century, and had turned the city into a bishopric by the turn of the millennium; in 1367, they built a university - one of Europe's oldest. A couple of centuries later, the Turks crashed the party at Pecs and took a shine to the place, which had benefited from a great deal of Magyar improvements and expansion during the previous few centuries. The arrival of the Ottoman armies might have resulted in some of the greatest sieges and battles in Hungarian history - Szigetvar, Eger, Mohacs - but Pecs wasn't one of them. Its city walls are very picturesque, but so low they could only have served to protect against invasion if the Turks had been a race of pygmies with advanced osteoporosis. By the end of their occupation, 150 years later, the Turks had left behind in Pecs what are now considered the most important Turkish monuments in Hungary, including the one building that appears on every postcard of Pecs: a copper-domed church on Szechenyi Ter, or Szechenyi Square, at the heart of the old town. The church began its life in the 16th century as the Pasha Gazi Kassim mosque, but was renamed the moment the Ottomans finally vacated Pecs, and is now commonly known as the Mosque Church or Djami. Meanwhile, the nearby Mosque of Pasha Hassan Yakovali houses one of the few minarets left standing in Hungary. The old town is a beguiling sea of terracotta and ornamental porcelain roof tiles, virtually all of the latter issuing from Pecs' renowned Zsolnay ceramic factory, which produces the green-glazed eosin porcelain that is one of Pecs' signature goods, and is found everywhere in the town, from outdoor fountains to the crock pantry at the local McDonalds. Narrow, cobblestone streets wend their way through neighborhoods of baroque, romantic, neo-rococo and neo-classical houses, past countless courtyards and walls half buried beneath wisteria and ivy, not to mention a plethora of restaurants and boozy little cloisters where you can sample the local liquid product. The Mecsek and Villany wines are definitely worth sampling, but tread a little more carefully with palinka, or Hungarian brandy. Some varieties are pleasantly warming with a lovely apricot taste, but there are also the others. If you've ever wondered what it might feel like to have the sun rising in your throat, these should go a long way towards satisfying that curiosity. For travelers who crave an art binge, Pecs delivers with an unusually high density of galleries. Among these, the Csontvary Museum displays paintings by the Hungarian symbolist painter Tivadar Csontvary Kosztka, while the Vasarely Museum is primarily a venue for works by the Pecs-born father of Op Art, Victor Vasarely. The Zsolnay Museum is also worth visiting, not just for its breathtaking collection of fin de siecle, art nouveau and art deco ceramics produced by the long-lived Zsolnay factory, but also because it is housed in Pecs oldest surviving building, which was erected in 1324. Among the plethora of art galleries, public art abounds with sculptures, ornate fountains and statues - my favorite was the monument to composer Franz Liszt, leaning for perpetuity over the balcony railing of the Bishop's Palace, peering thoughtfully across Dom Ter before the imposing Basilica of St Peter. Along with Pecs' very agreeable, ice cream consumption-conducive climate comes a relaxed cafe-based lifestyle, with tables positioned on the generous pavements and pedestrian thoroughfares of Citrom Utca, Kiraly Utca and Ferencesek Utcaja. All of this provides for a very central European feel, with one exception: the prices. Nevertheless, Pecs is still a bargain, even compared to Budapest. With a population of only 170,000, Pecs manages to be intimate without feeling small. And while the city is very tourist-friendly - with plenty of excellent restaurants, hotels, automatic teller machines and internet cafes, as well as a tourist-information center - Pecs appears not to have compromised its character to accommodate its constant tide of visitors. The city is not only postcard pretty, it is also a living, breathing, working town, with the university conferring a lively pulse. Even the folk music in Pecs is the real thing. It is well worth getting to a tanchaz, or dance house, where you will hear everything from violins to goatskin bagpipes. One of the pipers in Pecs is known only as Tesko - I'm not sure if anyone knows his real name anymore - and he introduced me to his bagpipes the first time I met him, patting the goat fur on the bag with affection. "I knew this one when she was alive," he said with a smile. You don't have to travel far from Pecs to find yourself back in the rural Hungary of thatched roofs, whitewashed walls, horsedrawn carts and chickens that wander the dusty streets, fixing passersby with a glare which manages to be at once imperious and vacuous. There are also hot mineral baths just down the road at both Szigetvar and Harkany, where swollen joints are soothed, back aches erased and the lame healed. And then there's the wine Babylon of Villany - regarded as one of the best of Hungary's myriad wine regions - where those who can walk sometimes become suddenly lame - if only for an hour or two. TRAVEL TIPS Where to Stay. The Amstel Hotel (3 Majorossy utca. Tel. 36-20-460-2134) is a comfortable, fully-modern hotel located in the historic district of central Pecs. Doubles with private bath are priced at $43 per night. Prices do not include breakfast. The new Hotel Millennium (58 Kalvaria utca. Tel. 36-20-460-2134) is also located in the historic district, and offers gorgeous views of nearby Kalvaria hill and of the city center. Doubles are priced at $75 per night, or $79 per night for rooms with panoramic views. For travelers on a budget, there is the Hotel Kikelet in the Mecsek Hills (1 Karolyi Mihaly utca), home of what is arguably the country's finest masseuse and where many of the rooms offer superb views. Doubles without private bath are priced at just $29 per night. Where to Eat. The Afium Pince, just a few meters south of Szechenyi Ter, combines a nicely worn-at-the-elbows, Old World feel with just a hint of post-Communist irony. The restaurant attracts mostly young patrons, who come to stuff themselves on the eatery's low-priced traditional Hungarian fare. For breakfast, consider visiting the Lemon Cafe on Citrom utca, where the specialty is delicious omelets and the best coffee in town. Later in the day, try the Bagolyvar at Tettye in the hills just outside of town - excellent during warm weather, when you can enjoy venison and the best local wines while seated at a table on the restaurant's outdoor terrace. How to Get There. Pulkovo flies direct to Budapest on Wednesdays and Fridays. From Budapest, take the inter-train to Pecs from Deli's Southern Station. Travel time is 2 hours, 40 minutes. Alternatively, Aeroflot has daily flights connecting Moscow and Budapest. Call (095) 753-5555 for more information. TITLE: North Korea Blasts South From the Table AUTHOR: By Soo-Jeong Lee PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: SEOUL, South Korea - North Korea told South Korea on Monday that it should not meddle in a standoff over communist North Korea's suspected nuclear weapons, calling it a dispute between itself and Washington. In a second day of cabinet-level talks in Pyongyang, South Korean delegates again demanded that North Korea abandon any atomic weapons development, citing a 1992 agreement to keep the Korean Peninsula nuclear-free. North Korea refused to discuss the nuclear issue. "The Northern side reiterated that the nuclear issue is a matter between the North and the United States," said a statement from the South Korean government. "But they said they wanted to resolve the matter peacefully." The talks, which began Sunday, are scheduled to end Tuesday. A senior U.S. official said North Korea, during talks in Beijing last week, claimed to have atomic weapons that it might test, sell or use, depending on U.S. actions. Seoul officials that said North Korean delegates have not confirmed the account. Instead, they reiterated that North Korea made a "new, bold" proposal to the United States during the Beijing talks, but they did not elaborate, South Korean spokesman Shin Eun-sang said. U.S. officials did not reveal North Korea's proposal, but South Korea's JoongAng Ilbo newspaper, quoting unidentified diplomatic sources, reported Monday that North Korea proposed to give up its nuclear programs in return for a nonaggression treaty and normalization in "political and economic relations with the United States." The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush has ruled out such a treaty, but U.S. officials have said some form of written security guarantee could be possible. North Korea says it fears being invaded by the United States following the Iraq war. South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun said Monday that when he meets Bush in Washington on May 15, they will discuss cooperating "to find a complete and peaceful solution to the nuclear issue," Roh's office said in a statement. During Sunday's talks, North Korea called for "united efforts of all the Koreans" to "reject the unilateral strong-arm action of foreign forces ... and prevent the danger of war," said North Korea's official news agency, KCNA. Such remarks reflect North Korea's long-standing policy of driving a wedge between the South and its main ally, the United States. North Korea tried to shift the focus of the talks to linking cross-border railways and other economic projects with South Korea that are part of a reconciliation process that grew out of a historic North-South summit in June 2000. During a visit Sunday to an unidentified "front-line unit," North Korean leader Kim Jong Il was satisfied that his soldiers were ready to repel "any surprise attack of the enemy at one stroke," and gave "guidelines in further increasing the unit's combat capability," KCNA said. Washington believes that North Korea has one or two atomic bombs and may be trying to make more. North Korea has indicated that it would never abandon its nuclear programs unless Washington signs a nonaggression treaty. The Bush administration has ruled out such a treaty, but U.S. officials have said that some form of written security guarantee may be possible. During the Beijing talks, U.S. officials said North Korea claimed it had reprocessed 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods - a key step in producing nuclear weapons that could yield several more bombs within months. The White House has said that it will confer with allies about whether to seek UN sanctions against North Korea. Pyongyang says that it would consider sanctions a "declaration of war." Washington has said it wants the "verifiable and irreversible" elimination of North Korea's nuclear-weapons programs. TITLE: Delegates Gather To Discuss Iraqi Future AUTHOR: By Charles J. Hanley PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: BAGHDAD, Iraq - More than 200 delegates from inside and outside Iraq stressing a theme of unity in a divided land, met Monday behind a wall of U.S. Army tanks guarding Saddam Hussein's showcase convention hall to search for agreement on a new government to replace the ousted dictator. Shiite and Sunni Muslim clerics in their robes, Kurds from the north, tribal chiefs in Arab headdresses and Westernized exiles in expensive suits all assembled for the one-day political conference, the second in a series expected to extend well into May. "We hope we can form a unified government, one that reflects the entire spectrum of Iraq," said Ahmad Jaber al-Awadi, a representative of the newly formed Iraqi Independent Democrats Movement. One prominent exile, Saad al-Bazzaz, said many delegates had discussed the possibility of a "presidential council" of several members, rather than naming a single leader for Iraq.. But many focused on the need - first - for security in a country where the U.S.-British invasion and ouster of the Saddam Hussein government three weeks ago touched off a rampage of looting, arson and general lawlessness. "The lack of security threatens our newborn democracy. Security must be restored for this experience to survive," Saadoun Dulaimi, a returned exiled politician, told fellow delegates. After an opening reading from the Quran, the approximately 250 delegates, which included a few women, were welcomed by the U.S. civil administrator for Iraq, retired Lieutenant General Jay Garner. The meetings are aimed at "a democratic government which represents all people, all religions, all tribes," Garner said. Garner noted that the day, April 28, was the fugitive Saddam Hussein's 66th birthday, for many years an Iraqi holiday filled with official celebration and enforced adulation of the authoritarian leader, who was "unanimously" endorsed by voters over the years in unopposed "elections." On a downtown street, an Iraqi Air Force colonel, Hussein al-Khafaji, took note of how different this birthday was. "Whenever we had those elections for president, everyone voted for him 100 percent," he told a reporter. "And today nothing will happen, and this will prove that none of us liked him, not one." In a sign of new cooperation, officials from the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, an Iran-based group of Shiite Muslim exiles, joined in the Baghdad conference. The council had shunned the first such meeting, on April 15 in southern Iraq, in protest of its U.S. sponsorship. Coming home after years abroad, Iraqis hugged and kissed. "In Baghdad?" one delegate asked another in disbelief. "Yes, in Baghdad," the other replied. Thousands of demonstrators marched through the sun-baked capital's streets, meanwhile, calling for unity of Shiite and Sunni Muslims, of Iraqi Arabs and Iraqi Kurds. But in a symptom of the disorganization and communications problems that have plagued the U.S. occupation in its first days, dozens of delegates couldn't reach the hall immediately. Instead, they drove in circles around traffic-choked central Baghdad, repeatedly blocked by army checkpoints from entering the site. The opening was delayed by two hours. As he sought entry to the conference, al-Bazzaz, a former Iraqi publisher, said he expected the discussions to produce a "a sort of government, a sort of authority." "I'm not expecting one person as president. I'm expecting a presidential council" of three to six members, said al-Bazzaz. "We have been discussing this, many of us." Elsewhere, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld visited Camp As Sayliyah in Qatar and told U.S. troops: "You protected our country from a gathering danger and liberated the Iraqi people." He said the U.S.-led war in Iraq was a historic success that will influence military doctrine for decades. The defense secretary was in the Persian Gulf to thank the troops and to meet with General Tommy Franks and other Iraq war commanders. After talks with the United Arab Emirates' defense minister and chief of staff on Sunday, Rumsfeld and Franks said U.S. military forces were not going to leave the region any time soon. Franks said he wanted to continue operations at Camp As Sayliyah, which was completed just before the war began. In advance of the Baghdad meeting, the U.S. military flexed its political muscle late Sunday by arresting Mohammed Mohsen al-Zubaidi, the self-proclaimed mayor of the capital, "for exercising authority which was not his." Al-Zubaidi is a returned exile associated with the opposition Iraqi National Congress. In Mosul, Kurdish paramilitary forces began complying with U.S. Army orders to stop armed patrols at checkpoints in order to relieve tensions between Arabs and Kurds, said Colonel Joe Anderson, commander of the 101st Airborne's 2nd Brigade. Lieutenant General Hossam Mohammed Amin, the Iraqi chief liaison to UN weapons inspectors, surrendered to U.S. forces in Sunday. He was No. 49 on the U.S. list of the 55 most-wanted figures from the Hussein regime, the six of clubs in the deck of playing cards that listed the fugitives. He was taken to the capital's international airport for questioning by U.S. authorities. Meanwhile, a dozen 55-gallon (209-liter) drums were found Sunday in an open field near the northern Iraqi town of Baiji. While initial tests indicated one drum might contain the nerve agent cyclosarin and a blister agent that could be mustard gas, The New York Times reported subsequent tests proved negative. TITLE: Second Round For Argentinian Elections AUTHOR: By Bill Cormier PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - Former President Carlos Menem finished first in presidential elections but failed to win an outright victory in his comeback bid, setting up a runoff vote to decide who will lead this recession-battered nation. The flashy former leader, who governed Argentina from 1989 to 1999, will face Nestor Kirchner, a rival from the ruling Peronist Party, in a second round of voting on May 18, official results show. The runoff between the two top vote getters will be the first in Argentine history. Four elections since 1973 have been held under a runoff system, but the option has never been required. With more than 90 percent of the ballots counted, Menem led Sunday's vote with 24.3 percent of the ballot compared to 22 percent for Kirchner, governor of the oil-rich Santa Cruz province. Former economy minister Ricardo Lopez Murphy was third with 16.4 percent. A candidate needed 45 percent to win outright. Some 25.7 million voters registered for the election, the fifth since democracy returned after the end of a 1976-83 military dictatorship from 1976 to 1983. The next round is expected to focus on the economy as the 72-year-old Menem squares off against the 53-year-old Kirchner, who draws his power based from outgoing President Eduardo Duhalde, who leaves office May 25. "The second round will be a mere formality!" Menem vowed at a victory rally late Sunday as his second wife, former Miss Universe Cecilia Bolocco, clung to his arm. Boisterous supporters from Menem's faction of the ruling Peronist party chanted "Menem is returning!" But when asked by a reporter what would happen if he lost, Menem joked, "I'll start running for 2007." The campaign leading to the May 18 runoff will be fought around two different visions for resuscitating the near-moribund economy. Argentina's finances are in tatters, ruined by a $141-billion public debt default and deep devaluation. The unemployment rate is at 17 percent and more than half of Argentines live in poverty. Menem, who dominated Argentina for 10 heady growth years before he left amid a deepening recession in 1999, vows he is the candidate suited for sitting in the presidential palace the next four years. Unswervingly supportive of U.S. free trade and free-market policies, Menem promises a Franklin Roosevelt-styled New Deal program of vast public works projects. He also espouses support for a Free Trade Area of the Americas and unfettered foreign investment in South America's third-largest economy. Kirchner hopes to garner support from across Argentina with his more center-left prescriptions for defending jobs and domestic industry first - calls that resonate at home, where joblessness is at near record levels, small businesses are in ruins and a once-wealthy European-styled country of broad boulevards is shattered. "It should be clear there are two economic models here: one that drove Argentina into debt and the one that restores jobs and dignity," said Kirchner, evoking visions of the country's grandeur when it once was ranked among the world's 10 wealthiest countries. Kirchner says Menem is the cause of the country's downfall and left a legacy of corruption and cronyism that left Argentina adrift. To win, Kirchner will need to draw from Duhalde's supporters in the Buenos Aires province. TITLE: Amputation No Handicap For These Hockey Players AUTHOR: By Christopher Hamilton PUBLISHER: Special to The St. Petersburg Times TEXT: Looking around the room at a number of children missing limbs at the St. Petersburg Albrecht Institute of Prosthetics, Brent Clemens smiled and asked "Does anyone play hockey?" Clemens, the chairperson of the Canadian Amputee Hockey Committee, was recognized by institute Deputy Director Dr. Konstantin Shcherbina for his efforts in developing standing amputee ice hockey on Friday. Clemens, himself a below-the-knee amputee, went around the institute on Friday meeting with patients, showing his prosthetic leg as he handed out Canadian flags and maple-sugar candy, and talking about the first ever World Standing Amputee Ice Hockey Championship currently taking place in Helsinki. "Standing-amputee hockey is a relatively new sport," Clemens explained. "I grew up playing junior hockey and I love the sport. I have a son and daughter and I coach both of their teams, as well as lacrosse and soccer." Clemens, an employee of General Motors of Canada, lost his leg in a car accident in 1989. "Since recovering, I've been playing on a regular team. Eventually, I learned that other countries were forming amputee teams and met with people from the American team," he said. "We organized the Canadian Amputee Hockey Committee, which was officially recognized by the Canadian Hockey Association in January." Canada was the third country to form an amputee hockey team, shortly followed by Finland. "This is an exciting time for us," explained Dr. Mark Pitkin, the recognized founder of the sport. "Courage is growing and the sport is expanding. With four teams, we are able to have our first World Championship. This is an important step in being recognized by the International Ice Hockey Federation and the International Paralympics Committee." Pitkin, who directs the International Institute for Prosthetic Rehabilitation of Landmine Survivors (IPRLS) at Tufts University School of Medicine in Boston, said that Canada and the U.S. played exhibition games at the 2002 Paralympics in Salt Lake City. "Canada won both games, but there were no losers on the ice," Clemens said with a smile. "You could see pride, achievement, and joy on every face." The Paralympics already recognize sled hockey, a version of hockey analogous to wheelchair basketball, in which players skate on sleds. "Amputee players want and deserve to play regular hockey," Pitkin said. Standing-amputee hockey, according to Pitkin, is a much faster sport than sled hockey. Like women's hockey, standing-amputee hockey does not allow bodychecking. Each team has five skaters and a goalie on the ice. Each player is then classified as an A, B, or C skater, depending on whether their amputation is above or below the joint or if they are missing multiple limbs. Each player gets one to three points, and each team can only have 12 points on the ice at a time. "Our goal is to have a medals game at the 2006 Paralympic Games. For that to happen, we need to have at least eight countries involved," Pitkin said. "There is a lot of work ahead of us, but the great thing about this sport is that people are really helping each other to find the courage to overcome their disabilities. We've come a long way" In 1998, Shcherbina teamed up with Pitkin and established a rehabilitation program between the Albrecht Institute and the IPRLS. Shcherbina organized the first standing-amputee practices in St. Petersburg in 1999. "It was a great program, which brought together the expertise of the surgeons at the institutes and advanced prosthetic technology from the United States," Shcherbina explained as he was leading Clemens around the institute. The program attracted landmine victims from the Afghan War, as well as St. Petersburg coach Nikolai Maslov, a world champion and former coach of St. Petersburg hockey team SKA. Before long, a standing-amputee team, the St. Petersburg Elks, was formed. In 1999, the Elks traveled to Boston, where they played a demonstration game against an non-amputee team. On May 10, 2000, American and Russian teams met in St. Petersburg at a demonstration game during the World Ice Hockey Championships. "Increased visibility has really helped the expansion of the sport. Sport is important, not only for exercise, but for increasing self esteem. Some of the testimonies that we have received from people are touching." Clemens said. Before heading off to the world championships in Helsinki, Pitkin and Shcherbina had work ahead of them at the institute. "We discovered that skating is better than running in terms of discomfort. Running causes lots of pressure and pain on the stump, while skating is much more fluid," Pitkin said. "As a result, athletes can push themselves harder. We are currently reviewing pressure data measured by a special device between the stump and the prosthetic that we hope will help us advance prosthetic technology." The two doctors have visions of building a hockey rink adjacent to the Albrecht Institute to assist them in rehabilitation and data collection. TITLE: Flyers Drop Senators, Tie Series PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: OTTAWA - Roman Cechmanek stopped 33 shots for his second career playoff shutout and the Flyers beat the Senators 2-0 Sunday night to even their second-round series. Cechmanek made up for his dismal performance in Friday's series opener by posting his first shutout in these playoffs. Simon Gagne and Mark Recchi scored for the Flyers, who tied the best-of-seven series 1-1. Philadelphia coach Ken Hitchcock was critical of Cechmanek after the goalie stopped just 13 of 17 shots in Philadelphia's 4-2 loss in Game 1. He still wasn't pleased after this victory. "I didn't think we played very well," Hitchcock said. "I thought we played better in the first game. I don't think we played well until we got mad." Gagne scored early in the first period and Recchi added another late in the game against Patrick Lalime, who made with 21 saves. Ottawa fell to 0-3 in second-round Game 2s. The Senators, who had an NHL-best 113 points this season, have never won the second game after opening a series with a victory. Ottawa beat Philadelphia 4-2 Friday night. The Senators went 0-for-6 on the power play; the Flyers were 0-for-3. It was the third sellout in five home games for the Senators this postseason. Before this year, Ottawa failed to sell out only one of 20 home playoff games. Gagne dampened the enthusiasm of the white-towel-waving crowd when he scored his fourth goal of the playoffs at 6:57 of the first. One of the criticisms of Cechmanek after Game 1 was that he struggled when he was forced to move side-to-side across his crease. However, it was Lalime who was beaten when Gagne sneaked out from behind the Senators net and fired a low shot off the far post on the Flyers' second shot. Lalime allowed goals on Philadelphia's first two shots in Game 1. Cechmanek stacked his pads to deny Wade Redden during a Senators power play in the first. He also blocked Mike Fisher's point-blank drive from the slot in the second. "We had chances in the second period and just didn't get the bounces," Senators captain Daniel Alfredsson said. "If we score on the power play it would have made all the difference." The Senators continued to press in the third, and Alfredsson was stopped from close range on the power play. "He is a good goalie," Senators forward Marian Hossa said of Cechmanek. "He stood on his head and I thought they played well defensively." The Flyers took advantage of a fanned shot by Karel Rachunek to break the other way. Redden missed John LeClair with a check to create a two-on-one chance. Recchi took a cross-ice pass and slipped the puck under Lalime with 6:58 to play to make it 2-0. Ottawa pulled Lalime for an extra attacker with two minutes to go, but failed to score. The Flyers were 30-0-3-1 during the regular season when leading after two periods. Philadelphia also tied the Senators with a league-best 24 road victories this season. Minnesota 3, Vancouver 2. Sergei Zholtok and Wes Walz scored just over a minute apart early in the third period and the Wild survived another late rally to beat the Canucks on Sunday night and even their second-round playoff series. The Canucks, who rallied from a 3-1 deficit in the third period in Game 1, pulled goalie Dan Cloutier with two minutes left. They got within a goal when Mattias Ohlund scored at 18:28 and continued to pour on pressure until the final buzzer. "I'd be lying if I said it didn't creep into my mind," Walz said of the Game 1 rally. "I got to admit there was a lot less emotion on the bench after they scored to make it 3-2. That doesn't always mean you're going to hang on, but it's nice to see the guys are poised on the bench." Marian Gaborik added a goal and an assist, and Pascal Dupuis had two assists for the Wild, who return home for Game 3 on Tuesday and Game 4 on Friday. Vancouver won the opener 4-3 when Trent Klatt scored in overtime last Friday, and Klatt almost tied this one on a scramble with 54.7 seconds left. But Wild defenseman Willie Mitchell closed his hand on the puck in the crease. After the buzzer, several fights broke out near the benches. Five players were given misconducts, including a game misconduct handed out to Mitchell. He had been sent off for roughing seven seconds earlier and came back out onto the ice. "It was the type of game where sticks and gloves and elbows were up," Mitchell said. "Sometimes as players or as a team you've got to protect yourself out there, and that's what you saw." Ed Jovanovski, who along with Todd Bertuzzi received misconducts, also scored for the Canucks. Vancouver lost for the first time in five games. TITLE: Shaq Takes Over, Lakers Level Series PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: LOS ANGELES - Shaquille O'Neal had a simple plan to keep the Lakers from being on the brink of elimination: Just get him the ball. "I told the guys before the game, get me the ball and move out of the way," he said. "I've just got to have the ball in a position where I can do something. As soon as I'm open, I would like to have it." He got it - from his teammates and off the boards - and that was the difference Sunday as Los Angeles rallied for a 102-97 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves to even their first-round playoff series 2-2. O'Neal had 34 points, 23 rebounds and six assists for the three-time defending champions, who won by outscoring the Timberwolves 22-11 in the last seven minutes. Minnesota didn't make a field goal in a span of 5:18 while falling behind for good, and Kevin Garnett missed two free throws with 15 seconds remaining and a chance to pull the Timberwolves within one. "This was a game that we had to have," O'Neal said. "We did what we're supposed to do." When asked why he didn't get the ball more often, O'Neal replied: "I don't have any idea. I would like to get the ball every time. I shouldn't have to say it." O'Neal grabbed 10 of the Lakers' 18 offensive rebounds to help them to a 29-2 advantage in second-chance points. Lakers coach Phil Jackson and teammate Kobe Bryant challenged O'Neal to be more physical, and the self-proclaimed MDE - most dominant ever - did just that. "Shaq was extremely aggressive - he had by far his best game of the whole series," Timberwolves coach Flip Saunders said. Regarding his dominance on the boards, O'Neal said: "I was just there, trying to get all the loose balls, trying to get the tips, trying to do my part." He did his part, and more. Bryant added 32 points, including 13 in the fourth quarter, despite shooting 7-of-25. He was 16-of-17 from the foul line, making four free throws without a miss in the last 0:12.8 to clinch the victory. "This is typical playoff basketball," Bryant said. "You just have to do whatever it takes to win the ballgame," he said. Garnett had 28 points, 18 rebounds and five assists, but his missed free throws were costly. "Total missed opportunity," Garnett said of the loss. "We had them on the ropes, too. They know it." Troy Hudson also had 28 points, although he did not score in the fourth quarter, missing his only two shots. Baskets by Rod Strickland, Garnett and Anthony Peeler gave Minnesota an 80-74 lead, and it was 86-80 following Strickland's basket with 7:32 remaining. But the Lakers fought back, and a jumper by Devean George with 4:40 to play gave them an 88-87 lead - their first since the second quarter. They were on top the rest of the way. George made a 3-pointer to make it 93-89, but Wally Szczerbiak's 3-pointer with 2:15 left made it a one-point game. Bryant made two free throws 20 seconds later, and neither team scored again until the Timberwolves fouled O'Neal on purpose with 0:50.8 left. O'Neal, who stepped to the line having made 7-of-13, made one to give the Lakers a four-point lead. Garnett responded by making a 3-pointer with 35 seconds left to make it 96-95. Garnett appeared to shove George twice to get open for his shot. Bryant missed a driving shot, but O'Neal tipped it in with 0:19.1 to play for a three-point lead - setting up Garnett's two misses. "I messed up. I'll take them any time," Garnett said. Phoenix 86, San Antonio 84. Backup center Jake Voskuhl scored on a jump hook over Tim Duncan after receiving a pass from Penny Hardaway with 0:02.3 seconds left to give Phoenix a come-from-behind victory over the Spurs. "Normally, I'm running out to set screens," Voskuhl said. "The ball ended up in Penny's hands. Penny beat his defender. My defender went to help pick up Penny, and Penny flipped it to me. I just turned around and hit a hook shot." It was the Suns' only lead of the fourth quarter. Duncan, who had 24 points and 11 rebounds, missed an off-balance 5-meter shot at the buzzer. The victory tied the best-of-seven series at 2-2, with Game 5 Tuesday night in San Antonio. "We were sloppy," Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. "It was gross turnovers that made for easy layups at the other end." San Antonio committed 25 turnovers resulting in 33 Phoenix points. "We just kind of gave it to them," said Duncan, who had six of the turnovers, "and they were there to take it." Stephon Marbury, who said he had no feeling in his right arm after a collision with Malik Rose in the third quarter, scored 18 points. Shawn Marion had 17 points and Hardaway had 13 points and seven assists, including the game-winner. Scott Williams added 10 for the Suns. San Antonio's Bruce Bowen, 3-for-18 from the field in the first three games of the series, shot 7-of-8 - five of them 3-pointers - for a career playoff high 19 points, but didn't take a shot in the final 6:55. Tony Parker added 19 points, 15 in the first half. TITLE: U.S. Shocked by Denmark, Facing Relegation Struggle AUTHOR: By Stephan Nasstrom PUBLISHER: The Associated Press TEXT: TAMPERE, Finland - A drop to relegation play was not what the United States expected in the World Hockey Championships. But that's just what the Americans got following stunning losses to Denmark and Switzerland. "Now comes the real work and the real test," U.S. coach Lou Vairo said Sunday, after a 1-0 loss to Switzerland. "We have to remain focused and positive. "And we have to be respectful and appreciative to teams like Switzerland and Denmark. They beat us. They deserved to move forward." Defenseman Mathias Seger scored a power-play goal in the first period to seal the United States' fate. The Swiss will join Russia and Denmark, from their preliminary-round group, in the next phase of the 16-team tournament. "It was a big day for the Swiss program with the pressure on this team," coach Ralph Krueger said. "We got it done on an effort that began with the goaltender all the way through the very young defense and the forwards working and protecting so hard." Marco Buhrer made 27 saves for his second shutout in the championship. This U.S. team has 12 NHL players, but is lacking true star power. No members of the team that lost the gold-medal game in last year's Winter Olympics are taking part in this tournament. The rest of those on the roster are from North American minor or European league teams. "We don't have the depth that, say, Canada has," Vairo said. "Our players don't have the accountability. If a Canadian kid says 'no' and he goes to his hometown, it's in the newspaper and it's on Canadian television: this player said 'no.'" Still, Vairo is happy with the players who did come. "They gave their best, and I was happy with our goalie [Ryan Miller] who played very well," said Vairo, whose team played just one exhibition and had only a few practices before the tournament. "He had a tough game against Denmark." The United States needed a Danish win over Russia on Sunday to keep its hopes of advancing alive. But the Danes, who shocked the United States 5-2 Saturday in one of the biggest upsets in championship history, lost 6-1 to Russia. Denmark, a small Scandinavian country with only about 4,000 players, is playing its first world championship since 1949. In that tournament, Denmark was beaten 47-0 by Canada. In the single, round-robin relegation series, the United States will face the last-place teams from the three other preliminary-round groups. The top two teams will stay in hockey's elite championship. The last two are relegated to Division I. The United States hasn't played relegation-round hockey since 1998 in Switzerland. Its best recent finish was a bronze medal in 1996.