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Ramzan Barbarossa

Published: February 22, 2007 (Issue # 1248)


The circumstances of Chechen President Alu Alkhanovs departure and replacement by Prime Minister Ramzan Kadyrov, right down to the date, was worked out with President Vladimir Putin in December 2006. This information comes from Kremlin and Southern Federal District sources who have become more talkative since the announcement.

One of the terms of the deal was that all of the parties concerned would stick to the agreed-upon script during the announcement. Strangely, Kadyrov, who is often considered difficult to manage, stuck to the bargain. It was Alkhanovs side that staged a counterattack in the press, suggesting that they should hang on to their positions or at least be provided with golden parachutes.

Up until last week, there had been two centers of power in Chechnya: the actual leader of the republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, and Russias ambassador to Chechnya, Alu Alkhanov. Alkhanov was clearly no threat to Kadyrov, whose attention had been focused on next years national presidential election. Because Kadyrovs authority is based on Putins personal support, the only way he could avoid losing his position amid the Kremlins pre-election power struggles was either to immediately become president of Chechnya or hope that Putin would remain president past 2008.

Lets be frank here: Any way you look at it, Chechnya is a mess. NATO ranks Chechnyas guerrilla forces as the strongest of their type in the world. Its not hard to understand when you consider that the republic was laid to waste three times in the 20th century: in 1944, 1995 and 1999. It is hard to hope for much when dealt such a hand, and it is hard to spell out a positive future using the letters m, e, s and s.

The only realistic options open to the Kremlin under the current circumstances besides granting Chechnya independence are simple. One is to create a federal regime free of strict Kremlin oversight. This is what we would have had under federal military officers like Captain Eduard Ulman and Colonel Yury Budanov, for whom every male Chechen is a terrorist and every female Chechen they rape is a sniper. Theirs was a reign of terror during which a clean-up operation involved tossing a grenade into a cellar full of children, ultimately creating more separatists than they destroyed. Such a regime would be run by a political puppet who would have no realistic hope of maintaining order. In that case, the Kremlin would end up having to sacrifice the lives of federal soldiers to kill Chechens in order to prop up the government.

The second option could be labeled Ramzan Barbarossa, in which Chechnya has a single functioning social institution by the name of Ramzan Kadyrov. Can anyone really doubt that Kadyrov would ever do anything but follow his own best interests in his dealings with Russia? And if Moscow can set things up so that Kadyrovs interests become identical to Russias, he would manage the republic pretty much on his own. The results arent likely to be pretty, but they give those in power on both sides what they want.

The Kremlin siloviki favor the first option, while Putin prefers the second. It is hard to say whether or not the decision he reached in late December came as a result of political squabbling, but it is clear that there are two ways to govern Chechnya: with Putins personal support or with a bureaucrat puppet loyal to the Kremlin. These two systems are too contradictory for the state to allow them to try to weather the pre-election storms this year.

What remains to be seen is whether current loyalties in Chechnya will shift along with conditions there and in Moscow. The Spanish grandees of the 12th century solemnly swore they would maintain vassal loyalty to the king as long as the king could force it from them.

Yulia Latynina hosts a political talk show on Ekho Moskvy radio.





 


ALL ABOUT TOWN

Thursday, Oct. 30


Dental-Expo St. Petersburg 2014 concludes today at Lenexpo. Welcoming specialists from throughout the federation, the forum is an opportunity for dentists to share tricks of the trade and peruse the most recent innovations in technology and equipment, with over 100 companies hocking their wares at the event.



Friday, Oct. 31


Put your grammar and logical thinking to the test in a fun and friendly environment during the British Book Centers Board Game Evening starting at 5 p.m. today. The event is free and all are welcome to attend.



Saturday, Nov. 1


The men and women who dedicate their lives to fitness get their chance to compete for the title of best body in Russia at todays Grand Prix Fitness House PRO, the nations premier bodybuilding competition. Not only will men and women be competing for thousands of dollars in prizes and a trip to represent their nation at Mr. Olympia but sporting goods and nutritional supplements will also be available for sale. Learn more about the culture of the Indian subcontinent during Diwali, the annual festival of lights that will be celebrated in St. Petersburg this weekend at the Culture Palace on Tambovskaya Ul. For 100 rubles ($2.40), festival-goers listen to Indian music, try on traditional Indian outfits and sample dishes highlighting the culinary diversity of the billion-plus people in the South Asian superpower.



Sunday, Nov. 2


Check out the latest video and interactive games at the Gaming Festival at the Mayakovsky Library ending today. Meet with the developers of the popular and learn more about their work, or learn how to play one of their creations with the opportunity to ask the creators themselves about the exact rules.



Monday, Nov. 3


Non-athletes can get feed their need for competition without breaking a sweat at the Rock-Paper-Scissors tournament this evening at the Cube Bar at Lomonosova 1. Referees will judge the validity of each matchup award points to winners while the citys elite fight for the chance to be called the best of the best. Those hoping to play must arrange a team beforehand and pay 200 rubles ($4.80) to enter.



Tuesday, Nov. 4


Attend the premiere of Canadian director Xavier Dolans latest film Mommy at the Avrora theater this evening. The fifth picture from the 25-year-old, it is the story of an unruly teenager but the most alluring (or unappealing) aspect is the way the film was shot: in a 1:1 format that is more reminiscent of Instagram videos than cinematic art. Tickets cost 400 rubles ($9.60) and snacks and drinks will be available.



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