Can Russia Be a Great Power?

By Mark N. Katz

Published: January 27, 2004 (Issue # 938)

Despite all of Russia's current problems, many Russian officials and commentators express enormous confidence that their country will once again be a great power. Bolstering this confidence is the observation that since the country has previously been able to survive periods of extreme weakness and (like the proverbial phoenix) risen from the ashes to become stronger than before, it can - and will - do so again now. But there is strong reason to doubt the country's ability to pull this feat off.

Three of the most striking occasions when the country appeared to be on the verge of collapse, but then went on to reassert itself as a great power, occurred during the Napoleonic Wars, World War I and World War II. In each of these cases, Russia benefited from the facts that the principal opponent (France in the first case, Germany in the second two) had overextended itself, and that there were many other nations working to defeat it.

Many Russians who see the United States as Moscow's principal opponent now draw an analogy between these previous events and the present. While Russia was greatly weakened by the collapse both of communism and the Soviet Union, the United States is now overextending itself in Afghanistan and Iraq. Further, Russians see that many other countries are working to end "American hegemony."

This analogy, however, is a false one. To begin with, it is not at all clear that the United States is overextending itself. The Bush administration's military interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq are hardly the equivalent to Napoleon's, Kaiser Wilhelm's and Hitler's attempts to conquer all of Europe and more.

But even if the United States is overextending itself and ends up withdrawing from Afghanistan and Iraq as well as retreating from the role of sole superpower, it is not at all clear that this will benefit Russia. Russia's previous transformations from near-collapse to resurrection as a great power were greatly facilitated by its neighbors in Europe, the Muslim world and China all simultaneously being weak as a result of war or some other factor.

This is certainly not the case now. Europe is strong and united. China is also strong, and getting stronger. And while the Muslim world may not be strong, it is certainly reasserting itself. Even if U.S. power does decline, opportunities for Russia to assert its influence in Europe, China or even the Muslim world simply will not be present, as they were in the past.

Many Russians, though, are focused on reasserting Moscow's influence in the non-Russian republics of the former U.S.S.R. They bitterly resent the unprecedented U.S. military presence in the Caucasus and Central Asia. An American withdrawal from these regions, however, would not benefit Russia. Moscow's failure to defeat the Chechen rebels after many years of trying suggests that it would also be unable to contain resurgent Islamic fundamentalism in the Caucasus and Central Asia by itself. Indeed, it is not clear that this could be done even with a U.S. presence there.

Similarly, Russia by itself could hardly hope to contain growing Chinese power in the Far East. And given the likely continuation of European distaste for intervention or confrontation, it is doubtful that Russia can count on its new allies there for much support vis-a-vis a resurgent China, the Muslim threat from the south or both.

Instead of resulting in Russia once again becoming a great power, a decline in American willingness or ability to act as a superpower will only result in Russia becoming even weaker.

For if the United States can't or won't help Russia against the most likely threats Moscow faces, it is doubtful that Europe or anybody else will be willing or able to do so, either. The choice Russia now faces is either to be a junior partner of the United States, or a weak, isolated power facing threats it cannot deal with on its own. The Russian phoenix won't rise again this time.

Mark N. Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia, contributed this comment to The St. Petersburg Times.