Saturday, November 1, 2014
 
Follow sptimesonline on Facebook Follow sptimesonline on Twitter Follow sptimesonline on RSS Download APP
MOST READ



PARTNER NEWS



BLOGS



OPINION



WHERE TO GO?

19th Century Portraits

History of St. Petersburg Museum: Rumyantsev Mansion

 

  Print this article Print this article

Where Will Russia's Economy Be in 5 Year's Time?

The outlook for Russias economy at this years St. Petersburg International Economic Forum is very different very different than one year ago.

Published: May 23, 2014 (Issue # 1812)


Last May, Russia's economic growth far outshone that of both Europe and the U.S., which were then only beginning to emerge from a long period of stagnation. The economic integration of Russia and the West also seemed unstoppable. Now, in 2014, Russia stands on the brink of recession and the fallout from its clash with the West over the crisis unfolding in Ukraine risks demolishing more than two decades of economic bridge-building. Caught between the slump and the Wests cold shoulder, Russian officials have begun making noises about looking to fast-growing Asian economies for new partners and sources of growth.

In the run-up to the forum, The St. Petersburg Times asked three business leaders from different industries to look through the mists and predict how they think the Russian economy would fare over the next five years.

Philip Halperin

Independent director and financial risk advisor, former chief risk officer at Alfa Bank and advisor to the executive board at Gazprombank.

1. What will be the main driver of the Russian economy over the next five years?

Using the word driver to mean major determinant, rather than primary boom, the main driver of the Russian economy aside from oil, gas and armaments is concentration and lack of competition. What Russia has is not a capitalist system, but crony capitalism. Insiders are insulated from the slings and arrows of fortune, and margins are protected. We see, for example, insider agreements to get rid of food and electronics markets that undercut the prices offered by favored retailers, and the removal of exchange points in favor of banks. Competition is arranged away, and the consumer is not king. This has led to a sort of new zastoi, or stagnation, reminiscent of the Brezhnev years of the Soviet Union.

This fact has become part of the second driver, or major determinant, of the Russian economy disillusionment.

Business owners and managers milk profits rather than re-invest them, and the promise of the economy is becoming more a was than a will be.

2. Where do you see Russia-Western economic cooperation in five years?

Russia is a seller of raw materials which in five years will still be consumed by Western nations, each according to its perception of its own interests and as a consumer of finished products. In other words, Russia is a sort of a colony of the West. This is an old pattern, dating back to the days of Veliky Novgorod and the Hanseatic League Novgorod exported lumber and amber, and brought the products of Western mills. The major advanced products of Russia armaments and space technology will be not purchased by the West for political reasons.

Pages: [1] [2 ] [3]






 


ALL ABOUT TOWN

Saturday, Nov. 1


The men and women who dedicate their lives to fitness get their chance to compete for the title of best body in Russia at todays Grand Prix Fitness House PRO, the nations premier bodybuilding competition. Not only will men and women be competing for thousands of dollars in prizes and a trip to represent their nation at Mr. Olympia but sporting goods and nutritional supplements will also be available for sale. Learn more about the culture of the Indian subcontinent during Diwali, the annual festival of lights that will be celebrated in St. Petersburg this weekend at the Culture Palace on Tambovskaya Ul. For 100 rubles ($2.40), festival-goers listen to Indian music, try on traditional Indian outfits and sample dishes highlighting the culinary diversity of the billion-plus people in the South Asian superpower.



Sunday, Nov. 2


Check out the latest video and interactive games at the Gaming Festival at the Mayakovsky Library ending today. Meet with the developers of the popular and learn more about their work, or learn how to play one of their creations with the opportunity to ask the creators themselves about the exact rules.



Monday, Nov. 3


Non-athletes can get feed their need for competition without breaking a sweat at the Rock-Paper-Scissors tournament this evening at the Cube Bar at Lomonosova 1. Referees will judge the validity of each matchup award points to winners while the citys elite fight for the chance to be called the best of the best. Those hoping to play must arrange a team beforehand and pay 200 rubles ($4.80) to enter.



Tuesday, Nov. 4


Attend the premiere of Canadian director Xavier Dolans latest film Mommy at the Avrora theater this evening. The fifth picture from the 25-year-old, it is the story of an unruly teenager but the most alluring (or unappealing) aspect is the way the film was shot: in a 1:1 format that is more reminiscent of Instagram videos than cinematic art. Tickets cost 400 rubles ($9.60) and snacks and drinks will be available.



Times Talk