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3rd 'Gas War' Looming Between Russia, Ukraine, EU

Published: August 14, 2014 (Issue # 1824)



  • Ukraine currently has enough gas to last until the New Year. What could follow in January was described by political pundit Pavel Salin as a communal catastrophe and a real threat to Ukraine's new leaders.
    Photo: Alex Malev / Flickr

Weather forecasters promise 32 degrees Celsius in Kiev on Thursday which makes the near-citywide absence of hot water due to a shortage of Russian gas more bearable.

But things could get much uglier in winter, when a "humanitarian catastrophe" looms, if the confrontation between Moscow and Kiev over Ukraine's rebellious eastern regions remains unresolved and Russia turns off the gas tap, analysts said.

While political pundits say the ongoing pro-Russian insurgency in Ukraine is Moscow's last remaining leverage against Kiev, the Kremlin still has a "gas truncheon" at its disposal. Ukraine is entirely dependent on Russian gas supplies, and half of Russia's gas exports to Europe flow through its pipelines.

The gas weapon is ineffective in the summer, but a new "gas war" between Russia and Ukraine which would be the third so far is waiting to happen this fall, when the energy- and cash-strapped Ukraine will have to provide for its citizens and factories, experts said.

The worst case scenario is a season-long halt to Russian gas supplies to Ukraine and the European Union, which, while not leaving populations to freeze, would ground Ukraine's industrial output and cause supply disruptions in the European countries beyond.

But Kiev and Brussels are more likely either to cut a new deal with Russia which would also suffer from the "gas war" through lost revenues or just get gas elsewhere, though at a higher price, analysts said.

Turning Off the Tap

Technically, the third "gas war" kicked off in mid-June, when Russia stopped supplying gas to Ukraine over an unpaid bill for gas estimated by Russia's gas export monopoly Gazprom at $5.3 billion.

Russia continues to supply gas to the EU through Ukrainian pipelines. Europe bought about 160 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in 2013, according to Gazprom, providing for 35 percent of EU's total gas consumption, put by think tank Eurogas at 462 billion cubic meters.

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Friday, Oct. 31


Put your grammar and logical thinking to the test in a fun and friendly environment during the British Book Centers Board Game Evening starting at 5 p.m. today. The event is free and all are welcome to attend.



Saturday, Nov. 1


The men and women who dedicate their lives to fitness get their chance to compete for the title of best body in Russia at todays Grand Prix Fitness House PRO, the nations premier bodybuilding competition. Not only will men and women be competing for thousands of dollars in prizes and a trip to represent their nation at Mr. Olympia but sporting goods and nutritional supplements will also be available for sale. Learn more about the culture of the Indian subcontinent during Diwali, the annual festival of lights that will be celebrated in St. Petersburg this weekend at the Culture Palace on Tambovskaya Ul. For 100 rubles ($2.40), festival-goers listen to Indian music, try on traditional Indian outfits and sample dishes highlighting the culinary diversity of the billion-plus people in the South Asian superpower.



Sunday, Nov. 2


Check out the latest video and interactive games at the Gaming Festival at the Mayakovsky Library ending today. Meet with the developers of the popular and learn more about their work, or learn how to play one of their creations with the opportunity to ask the creators themselves about the exact rules.



Monday, Nov. 3


Non-athletes can get feed their need for competition without breaking a sweat at the Rock-Paper-Scissors tournament this evening at the Cube Bar at Lomonosova 1. Referees will judge the validity of each matchup award points to winners while the citys elite fight for the chance to be called the best of the best. Those hoping to play must arrange a team beforehand and pay 200 rubles ($4.80) to enter.



Tuesday, Nov. 4


Attend the premiere of Canadian director Xavier Dolans latest film Mommy at the Avrora theater this evening. The fifth picture from the 25-year-old, it is the story of an unruly teenager but the most alluring (or unappealing) aspect is the way the film was shot: in a 1:1 format that is more reminiscent of Instagram videos than cinematic art. Tickets cost 400 rubles ($9.60) and snacks and drinks will be available.



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