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Putin Is Replaceable

Published: August 20, 2014 (Issue # 1825)




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Will Russia plunge intochaos anddarkness after President Vladimir Putin leaves? While its understandable that propaganda-brainwashed Russians might truly think so, it comes as asurprise when U.S. analysts repeat thesame idea.

Knowing theweakness ofthe liberal opposition andthe strength ofPutins security apparatus, its hard not tofear that his replacement will make us long forthe days ofhis thuggishly predictable unpredictability, warns Julia Ioffe onThe New Republic. If theU.S. gets rid ofPutin they will have no ability tocontrol what happens next, threatens Mark Adomanis onForbes.

Such pessimistic estimates, however, are hardly well grounded. Russias 140 million citizens should be capable ofreplacing their president with someone who isnt living in another world, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said ofPutin.

Theanalysts who are scared ofpost-Putin Russia usually raise thefollowing points: 1) Putin ruined all independent institutions andmade himself theonly arbiter ofpower. This will lead tochaos once he leaves theKremlin. 2) Putin is theonly constraint onRussias highly motivated andorganized nationalists, who will transform thecountry intoa fascist regime once he leaves. 3) Personalistic regimes are rarely followed bydemocratic systems, so whats thepoint ofreplacing apples with apples?

Lets consider those arguments step bystep.

First, its true that Putin has successfully set up anautocratic political system over thelast 15 years. Bydestroying opposition parties, putting their leaders under arrest andblocking popular mobilization, theKremlin has succeeded inlimiting theRussian populations interest inpolitics. Theresulting void between theauthorities andthe people has led tocomplete alienation between theelites andthe masses.

But Russia would not be lost tochaos if Putin disappeared. Instead, it would empower one ofthe more politically successful segments inRussian society today: theliberal white-collar opposition movement. No other social group inthe last 20 years has been remotely able tomobilize 100,000 to200,000 protest participants (as they managed in2011-12 protests), or the630,000 Muscovites who voted foropposition candidate Alexei Navalny during last years election forMoscow mayor.

Thevery demobilization ofmost ofRussian society is also aguarantee against theemergence ofnationalistic groups. Many Russians might repeat certain ideas they hear onthe television, but they wont stand up forthose ideas. Theswings inRussians public opinion onthe major issues prove that point. Forexample, thesupport formilitary invasion inUkraine dropped 20 percent fromFebruary toJune following thesoftening ofthe media propaganda discourse.

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ALL ABOUT TOWN

Saturday, Nov. 29


Cats, dogs, birds, rodents and reptiles are just some of the things that will walk and crawl at Lenexpo convention center this weekend as part of Zooshow, a two-day exhibition featuring not only mans best friends but a four-legged fashion show, as well as a food fair that will help pet owners find out more about which kibbles are best for their hungry pets.



Sunday, Nov. 30


Remember the 75th anniversary of the beginning of the Russo-Finnish war in 1939 during todays reenactment titled Winter War: How it Was. More than 200 people will take part in recreating the opening salvoes of the battle for the north in Kamenka, a small village situated between Vyborg and St. Petersburg, using authentic equipment and vintage vehicles from the era. The faux battle begins at 2 p.m.



Monday, Dec. 1


Serbia filmmaker Emir Kusturica is the featured guest this evening at the Lensovet Palace of Culture the Petrograd Side. Fans of the director will get the chance to watch his movie Black Cat, White Cat, as well as ask questions about his award-winning filmography. Tickets for the event, which starts at 7 p.m., start at 2,000 rubles ($42.50).



Tuesday, Dec. 2


Today is the final day of Takoy Festival, a three-week program of plays based on the works of Dostoevsky, Remarque and other famed European writers, whose work is transcribed for theatrical performances. Tonights festival finale is Fathers and Sons, a two-act drama staged by the Novosibirsk Academic Drama Theater based on Turgenevs classic about familial relations.



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